2024 AFL Grand Final Tips - Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions predictions

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: 25 Sep 2024

Jeremy Darke 25 Sep 2024

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Sydney vs Brisbane expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL Grand Final
Swans have had easier path to Grand Final
Sydney's strong midfield and form give them the edge

Expired

Swans to lift the Premiership trophy

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Predictions

Sydney Swans have had an easy ride to the Grand Final than Brisbane Lions. I'm predicting that the Lions will fade late in the premiership decider with Sydney to be crowned the 2024 AFL Premiers.

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Predictions
Head to Head
Sydney Swans Form
Sydney Swans Team News
Brisbane Lions Form
Brisbane Lions Team News

The Swans and Lions are the last two AFL Grand Final losers
Sydney won 2 of 3 games at the MCG this season
Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden have combined for 82 goals this season.
Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden have been involved in 150 of Sydney’s 355 goals this season.

Head to Head

Brisbane snuck home by two points in their one and only meeting with the Swans in round 19, kicking four goals to two in the final quarter to steal a famous victory.

Brisbane have won their past three matches against Sydney with the Swans only win in the past 6 seasons coming in 2021, as the Lions lead the head to head stats 5-1 during that time.

Sydney Swans Form

Sydney were the minor premiers and come into this game as rightful favourites over Brisbane. The Swans season was not without its bumps but they steadied their flight path to the Grand Final winning their final three matches of the home and away season and claiming two wins already in the finals.

Sydney did it the tough way, coming back from as much as 28 points against GWS in week 1 of the finals, getting past their NSW rivals by six points in a dramatic comeback victory.

In the Prelim it was a different story, the Swans didn’t make the same mistake and got out to an almost perfect start kicking 4.0 in the first quarter to lead by nine.

The Swans then kicked 5.1 in the second term with their accuracy on goal crushing Port Adelaide who were back to their negative accuracy percentage. The Swans flew on to control the ball in the second half of the match and booked their spot with a 95-59 victory.

The Swans midfield trio of Isaac Heeney (24 disposals), Errol Gulden (27 disposals and Chad Warner (21 disposals) were the difference once again.

Sydney Swans Team News

Sydney captain Callum Mills was reportedly left in tears after being ruled out of the Grand Final. Mills missed the game against Port with a hamstring injury and has not been up to come up to full fitness for the big one.

Brisbane Lions Form

Plenty of us, including myself, put a line through Brisbane early this season with their injury list as brutal as any early, losing the likes of Keidean Coleman, Darcy Gardiner and Tom Doedee and dissipating their backline.

Chris Fagan has worked his magic and the development in Brisbane has been strong with Darcy Wilmot stepping up to take his chance.

Brisbane's road through the finals has been as dramatic as I can remember, coming out of a 44-point hole against GWS in week 1 of the finals to win by 5 in the dying moments.

They then did it all again, coming back from 25 points at the start of the third quarter against the Cats last weekend to almost squander a 12-point lead in the fourth of their own kicking two late goals to take their place in the Grand Final 95-85.

Brisbane’s midfield controlled the clearance and put the ball down the right side of the field with Lachie Neale (31 disposals, 12 clearances) and Hugh McCluggage (27 disposals, 6 clearances) the core of the good work.

Brisbane used their good pace on the ground to take over the game and were too fast in transition for the Cats to handle.

Brisbane Lions Team News

Oscar McInerney has been ruled out after dislocating his shoulder twice in the preliminary final against the Cats before being subbed out with 10 minutes to go.

Verdict

Sydney v Brisbane

Sydney are tipped to be too strong through the midfield for Brisbane to keep up with. The Lions' hard road to the final is predicted to take its toll and the Swans get on top in the end.

Sydney Swans

Money Line

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