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Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons Preview & Tips - Dees backed for Gather Round success in Adelaide

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 02 Apr 2024
Ryan Tucker 02 Apr 2024
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  • Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons expert predictions for Thursday’s AFL game
  • Demons have strong goal efficiency ranking third in the league
  • Demons have the upper hand with a 4-2 advantage in games since 2019
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Max Gawn
Max Gawn of the Demons (Getty Images)

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons Preview


Adelaide Crows are winless at 0-3 and face a Melbourne Demons side they have struggled to handle in recent years. The points should be going the way of the Dees.

The Demons are third in goal efficiency stats and the Crows are 17th of 18 teams. With those numbers, I'm predicting a one-sided game in the opening match of the Gather Round in Adelaide.

  • Adelaide average 54.7 Inside 50’s so far this season but average only 7.7 goals per game
  • Melbourne take only 9.5 Marks Inside 50 per game but have the 3rd best Goal Efficiency in the league at 26.5%
  • The average margin of victory in Melbourne’s last three wins over Adelaide is 24.6 pts
  • Max Gawn is in the Elite bracket for disposals this season averaging 19.3 per game, up on his career number of 15.5

Head to Head 


Melbourne have the upper hand over Adelaide, holding a 4-2 advantage over all games played since the start of the 2019 season. 

The Dees have won the last three in a row and two of the last three at Adelaide Oval. 

Adelaide Crows Form


The Crows went down to Fremantle last weekend in a woeful display of footy. Adelaide started off relatively strong kicking the first goal of the game and getting out to a 10 point lead on multiple occasions. 

Midway through the second quarter though they allowed Fremantle to gain momentum which never really stopped and the Dockers ran away 35 point winners in low scoring game. 

Adelaide were once again below average in front of goal, kicking 4.10 in the game as well as a number of kicks that went wide or fell short.

Adelaide Crows Team News


Wayne Milera is done for the season and will undergo surgery this week on his knee. 

Lachlan Murphy will be out 3-5 weeks also with a knee injury. Jordan Butts will test his ankle before game day and there is still no word on Rory Sloane who is out with an eye injury.

Melbourne Demons Form


The Dees picked up a handy win against fellow top 4 hopeful Port Adelaide last weekend also at Adelaide Oval.

In a game that had big momentum swings it was Melbourne who were able to time it right, having all the energy in the 4th to take a 7 point victory. 

Melbourne’s trend of being accurate and efficient Inside 50 continued as they had only 45 entries kicking 15.6 on the day. 

To shine a light on the 4th quarter play Melbourne had 35% possession in the last 10 minutes of the game compared to Ports 29%.

Melbourne Demons Team News


Marty Hore will need surgery on his thumb ruling him out for the next month while Kade Chandler will need a fitness test before being given the green light. 

Steven May should be right to go following a rib injury as should Lachie Hunter who has battled a calf injury. Daniel Turner and Charlie Spargo are still a few weeks away.

Verdict

Adelaide have struggled this season and just can’t seem to move the ball forward with any sort of accuracy. I don’t see them magically fixing that in one week.

Best Bet1: Melbourne 1-20 Winning Margin @29/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 169.5 Game Total @8/9 at bet365 - 2 Units
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04 Apr 2024

Adelaide v Melbourne