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Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Tips & Preview - Blues value to take fight to Lions in AFL Elimination Final

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: 05 Sep 2024

Ryan Tucker 05 Sep 2024

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Brisbane vs Carlton expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
Lions are 22.5-point favorites in the Elimination Final
Carlton has key players returning and could cover the spread

Expired

Can Carlton tame the Lions? (Getty)

Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Predictions

Brisbane are heavy 22.5-point favourite’s but Carlton get some key men back for the Elimination Final. The Blues appeal with the start.

Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Predictions
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions Form
Brisbane Lions Team News
Carlton Form
Carlton Team News

5 of the last 7 wins by Brisbane were by a margin of 20 points or less.
8 of 10 Carlton losses were by a margin of 14 points or less this season.
In Carlton’s 2-6 run to end the season they still kicked over 72.5 points in 6 of those matches.
Brisbane held their opponents under 73 points in just 3 of their final 11 matches of the season.

Head to Head

Carlton turned a 46-point deficit into a one-point win in opening round at the Gabba this season. The Blues Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow kicked seven goals with the former kicking the game winner 90 secs from the siren.

Brisbane had won 5 straight games against Carlton prior to the first match of this season, including a 79-53 victory in the preliminary final last season when Brisbane came back from 30 points down in the first quarter to have a lead of 28 mid-way through the fourth before sealing their path to the finals.

The Brisbane Lions and Carlton Blues have met 4 times in the finals with Brisbane holding a 3-1 advantage in those contests.

Brisbane Lions Form

Brisbane won nine straight matches to revive their season from a 2-5 start which pulled them back into the top 8 for the final third of the season.

The Lions did hit a couple of speed bumps in GWS and Collingwood which ended that run before settling in the final round by taking care of Essendon by 20 points before the bye round.

With season ending injuries to half of their backline throughout the year Brisbane went on the attack and averaged 100.5 points in their final 12 games of the season.

It could have very well been more but they have lacked the clinical finish that they had in 2023, kicking at just 50.7% shot at goal accuracy.

Brisbane started the season 0-3 at the Gabba but recovered nicely with a seven from eight win record in Brisbane after their poor start.

Brisbane Lions Team News

Brandon Starcevich (hamstring) and Jack Payne (foot) as well as utility Bruce Reville (fibula) will all be available for the Elimination final in a huge boost for Brisbane.

Carlton Form

The Blues were looking like one of the favourites for the premiership sitting at 11-4 and blasting past their opponents on a 5-game win streak with an average winning margin of 43 points after round 16, however the tide turned quickly on Carlton.

The Blues began to run into injury trouble and won just 2 of the final 8 games of the season and snuck into the finals on the back of a loss by Freo in Perth in the final game of the season.

Carlton’s strength has undoubtedly been their forward line which has converted 46.2 percent of its inside 50s into points and 26.7 percent into goals.

Last year’s Coleman medalist Charlie Curnow leads the Blues with 57 goals from 21 appearances as he has struggled through the season with an ankle injury and has not been at his best.

Carlton Team News

Sam Doherty will play his first game since doing his ACL in the opening match against Brisbane this season.

There is positive uncertainty around the health of Charlie Curnow (ankle), Harry McKay (quad), Mitch McGovern (hamstring), Zac Williams (hamstring), Tom De Koning (foot), Adam Cerra (hamstring) and Jack Martin (hamstring).

Verdict

Brisbane v Carlton

The Blues can kick over their team total of 72.5 points and cover the 22.5-point line as the underdog.

Carlton +22.5

Handicap/Line

@9/10 - 3 Units

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Carlton Over 72.5

Team Total

@10/11 - 2 Units

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