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Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Tips - Magpies to tighten grip on top spot in Blues blockbuster

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: 30 Jun 2025

Adam Cusworth 30 Jun 2025

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Carlton has struggled recently, losing four of their last six.
Collingwood sits atop the ladder with a strong defensive record.
Key players: Josh Daicos expected to have 30+ disposals, George Hewett showing resistance for Carlton.

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MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 03: Mitch McGovern of the Blues kicks the ball during the 2025 AFL Round 04 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Carlton Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on April 3, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Preview

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Preview
Head to Head
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Carlton Blues Team News
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis
Collingwood Magpies Team News

Can Carlton defy the odds to serve it up to their old rivals, Collingwood, in AFL Round 17?

The wheels have fallen off for the Blues and pressure continues to mount on their coach, Michael Voss. Last week, it was a 50-point loss to Port Adelaide, leaving them languishing in 11th spot on the ladder with a 6-9 win-loss record.

Collingwood sit on top with 13 wins from 15 and come off a 29-point victory against West Coast. The Pies took a bit of time to get going in that match, before experience shone through when it mattered.

Matches between these two sides have traditionally been close. The past 17 have been decided by 39.5 points or less.

But Collingwood look all the rage here, given that the Blues look to be shot. With the exception of a couple of games earlier in the year against West Coast and North Melbourne, their system going forward has been poor.

The Magpies are the best defensive side in the competition and it is hard to see Carlton kicking a competitive total. Take Collingwood to cover the line. Josh Daicos looks strong for 30+ disposals, while George Hewett can provide some resistance for the Blues.

In the past eight rounds, Carlton have averaged just 71 points per game.
Collingwood are the competition’s best when it comes to restricting opposition scores.
Josh Daicos has had 30+ disposals in his past three matches.
George Hewett has averaged 28 disposals in his past four matches against Collingwood.

Head to Head

Collingwood have won the past three between the two sides and six of the past seven. Four of those six wins were by a one goal margin or less. The two sides met earlier this season and it was a 17-point victory for the Magpies. Interestingly, the past 17 matches between the old rivals have been decided by 39.5 points or less.

Josh Daicos had 31 disposals in the Round 4 clash this season. Nick Daicos has averaged 29 disposal in his past four matches against Carlton, while George Hewett has averaged 28 for the Blues.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis

Carlton have lost four of their past six matches. Wins in that period came against an injury depleted Essendon outfit by eight points and the bottom-placed West Coast by 34.

They looked shot for confidence against Port Adelaide and registered just 293 disposals to 347. George Hewett (21 disposals) was the only player to hit the 20+ mark.

Connection from from the midfield to the forward line has been a problem all season. In the past eight rounds they have averaged just 71 points per game. Orazio Fantasia was the only multiple goalkicker against Port Adelaide with two majors.

Carlton Blues Team News

Adam Saad enters concussion protocols and will miss. Harry McKay and Sam Walsh remain on the sidelines. Flynn Young was quiet in his debut last weekend but is one of a stack of Blues that did not have an impact. Ben Camporeale is one of a few in the VFL that will be considered.

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis

Collingwood have won their past seven matches. Five of those have been by margins of less than 39.5 points. Over the course of the season, the Magpies top the competition for fewest points conceded.

At the other end of the ground, the Pies rank 5th for scoring in the past five weeks and have kicked 100 points or more in three of those games. Tim Membrey and Brody Mihocek kicked two goals apiece last weekend. Membrey has hit the 2+ in his past two matches.

Nick Daicos had 34 disposals against West Coast and has hit the 30+ in four of his past five. Josh Daicos has collected 30+ disposals in his past three matches.

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Bobby Hill was a late withdrawal due to personal reasons prior to the West Coast match and is expected to come back in. Interesting to see if the Magpies persist with four talls up forward. Charlie West debuted with a goal against the Eagles before being subbed out. He might make way. Brayden Maynard is expected to be available to return from injury. Tom Mitchell found plenty of the footy in the VFL and will be considered.

Verdict

Carlton Blues v Collingwood Magpies

Collingwood to cover the line. Hewett and Josh Daicos to find plenty of the footy for their respective sides

Collingwood -26.5

Handicap +26.5

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