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Carlton vs Brisbane Lions Predictions & Tips - Lions to edge the Blues

  • Carlton vs Brisbane Lions predictions for Saturday's AFL Round 6 match
  • The match is being played at Marvel Stadium (7.35am BST)
  • Brisbane have won 4 of their last 5 matches against Carlton
  • The Lions are tipped to win by 1-39 points
  • Match preview, predictions and latest team news
carlton brisbane lions
Carlton has lost 4 of their last 5 matches against Brisbane Lions (Getty Images)
Freetips staff 23 Apr 2021
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Carlton vs Brisbane Lions Predictions


It won't be easy for the Lions, but I expect them to maintain their good record against Carlton. A win by 1-39 is the best bet and for under the match total points to hit.

  • Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5 matches against Carlton.
  • Five of the last 6 head to heads have been decided by 1-39 point margins.
  • Brisbane Lions have won 5 of their last 6 day matches by a margin of 1-39 points.
  • Brisbane Lions have seen their last 4 matches go under the total match points line.

Head to Head


The Lions have had the measure of Carlton over the last few years, winning four of the last five meetings. Going further back, Brisbane have won seven of the last nine since 2014.

Last year, the only meeting between the sides ended in a 78-61 win for the Lions at the Gabba in Round 18.

Carlton Form


Carlton sit with a 2-3 record from the opening five weeks with the Blues having scored wins over Fremantle Dockers and Gold Coast Suns in Rounds 3 and 4.

The Blues were no match for Port Adelaide at the MCG last weekend with the Power winning 96-68 despite posting a seven-point final quarter.

Having trailed by 43 points with under 10 minutes to play, Carlton will look to take the final quarter performance - in which the kicked three goals to Port Adelaide's one - into the clash with the Lions.

Carlton Team News


First-round draftee Liam Stocker is called up for a first start in AFL for the Blues after a standout performance in the VFL.

David Cuningham also comes into the side with Tom Williamson, Matt Kennedy and Paddy Dow left out by Carlton.

Jack Silvagni, Luke Parks and Charlie Curnow are still on the sidelines.

Carlton Team List


B: L.Plowman, L.Jones, S.Petrevski-Seton
HB: S.Docherty, J.Weitering, A.Saad
C: J.Newnes, E.Curnow, S.Walsh
HF: L.Fogarty, M.McGovern, M.Murphy
F: M.Gibbons, H.McKay, L.Casboult
FOLL: M.Pittonet, P.Cripps, Z.Williams
I/C: D.Cunningham, M.Cottrell, E.Betts, L.Stocker
EMG: M.Kennedy, T.Williamson, P.Dow, M.Owies

Brisbane Lions Form


Brisbane Lions produced their best performance of the season as they defeated Essendon Bombers by 57 points last weekend at the Gabba.

What was most impressive about Brisbane's 102-45 win was that it came in wet conditions that were far from condusive to a high-scoring performance.

It took the Lions to a 2-3 record with their other win coming over Collingwood at Marvel Stadium thanks to an after-the-siren winner.

The Lions' three defeats have come to likely finals contenders in Sydney Swans, Geelong Cats and Western Bulldogs.

Brisbane Lions Team News


Lachie Neale was back to his best last weekend with 37 disposals and Joe Daniher kicked two goals and had 25 touches. Both will be key against Carlton.

The Lions has lost Jarrod Berry to an adductor injury, but Oscar McInerney (ankle) has been passed fit. Deven Robertson comes into the side.

Brisbane Lions Team List


B: D.Rich, H.Andrews, C.Ah Chee
HB: D.Gardiner, R.Lester, G.Birchall
C: D.Zorko, Z.Bailey, M.Robinson
HF: H.McCluggage, J.Daniher, L.McCarthy
F: D.McStay, E.Hipwood, C.Cameron
FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Lyons, L.Neale
I/C: D.Robertson, J.Prior, M.Adams, B.Starcevich
EMG: T.Berry, H.Sharp, R.Mathieson, C.Ballenden

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Verdict

Brisbane looked back to their best last weekend and their record against Carlton is hard to ignore. The Lions are tipped to win by 1-39 points and for the game to go under 174.5 points.

Best Bet: Brisbane Lions Win Match Result @-138.89 at BetMGM - 3 Units
Value Bet: Under 174.5 Points Total Points @-112.36 at bet365 Sport NJ - 2 Units
Margin Bet: Brisbane Lions by 1-39 Winning Margin @125.00 at Borgata Sports - 1 Unit

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