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Collingwood vs Geelong Cats Preview & Tips - Pies to edge to victory over the Cats in AFL

Last updated: 10 Jul 2024
Ryan Tucker 10 Jul 2024
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  • Collingwood vs Geelong Cats expert predictions for Friday’s AFL game
  • Expect a tight game with Collingwood slightly favored
  • Prediction for game total to go over 169.5 points
Nick Daicos
Pies take on the Cats (Getty)

Collingwood vs Geelong Cats Predictions

There is not much to split these two sides and this could go down to the wire. I'm backing Collingwood to edge it and for the game to go over the total.
  • Collingwood vs Geelong Cats Predictions
  • Head to Head 
  • Collingwood Form
  • Collingwood Team News
  • Geelong Cats Form
  • Geelong Cats Team News

  • Collingwood average 3 more Scoring Shots Inside 50 per game than Geelong which could be the difference in this one.
  • The Cats give up the most Clearances per game to their Opposition at 42.8.
  • Geelong are 3rd and the Pies 7th in Contested Possessions.
  • Both teams last 3 games and the last 3 matchups between these two have gone Over the Game Total

Head to Head 

These two teams have met six times in the regular season since the beginning of the 2019 season with each taking three wins a piece. 

They have also met three times in the Finals arena during that span with Geelong holding a 2-1 record in those games.

Collingwood Form

The Pies suffered two significant losses on the weekend. The first to the Bombers on the scoreboard, pushing the Pies out of the 8, but also the loss of key forward Brody Mihocek, who has been an integral part of their attack this season, for the remainder of the year.

Collingwood kicked 5 of the first 6 majors before taking their foot off the pedal and allowing their opponent some momentum going into the half. 

Down 86-61 in the last term the Pies kicked 4 of the last 5 goals of the game to give some hope of another comeback victory but it was too little too late as Essendon ran out with the win.

The Magpies Efficiency Inside 50 was way down on their season average with many scoring opportunities going begging.

Collingwood Team News

Ruckman Darcy Cameron has been cleared to play following a scare with injured ribs following the loss against Essendon. 

Jamie Elliott, Oleg Markov, John Noble and Isaac Qauynor will all need to pass fitness tests to be selected to play.

Brody Mihocek will miss the remainder of the season with a pec injury with Beau McCreery not expected back for 3-5 weeks. Mason Cox could return as early as next week but given his age and body type, 2 weeks is more realistic.

Geelong Cats Form

Geelong have made it two in a row since they received a flogging at the hands of Carlton in round 15. 

Last weekend it was the high-flying Hawks that had their wings clipped by the Cats, stopping their 5 game win streak and bringing them crashing back down to earth with a 51 point victory. 

The Cats led from start to finish in the game completely outdoing their opponent in the forward half of the field amassing 63 Inside 50’s with a 57.1% Efficiency Rate up top and only 61 Turnovers for the game using the ball well across the whole field. 

They also outmarked their opponent Inside 50 by 22-8 which is big considering Tom Hawkins is out injured.

Geelong Cats Team News

Cam Guthrie is said to be progressing well in his return from an achilles injury but the timeline has been moved back on multiple occasions. Oli Wiltshire is expected to make a return from a pelvic injury within the next month.

Tom Hawkins will be out 6-8 weeks with a foot injury while Tanner Bruhn is still a while away. 


I am backing the Pies to edge a very tight game. There should be a lot scoring and the trends point to the Game Total going Over.

Best Bet1: Collingwood 1-39 Winning Margin @17/11 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 169.5 Game Total @9/10 at Betgoodwin - 2 Units
Collingwood 1-39
Winning Margin
@17/11 - 2 Units
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Game Total
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