Collingwood vs Sydney Swans Tips & Preview - Pies to edge victory in AFL Gather Road at Adelaide Oval

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: 09 Apr 2025

Adam Cusworth 09 Apr 2025

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Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans expert predictions for Friday’s Round 5 AFL game
Collingwood have conceded just 22 goals in 3 games
Expect a close game with Collingwood winning by 1-39 points, total points under 168.5.

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Collingwood (Getty Images)

Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans Preview
Head to Head
Collingwood Magpies Form
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Sydney Swans Form
Sydney Swans Team News

Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans Preview

Collingwood have stifled their opposition in recent weeks and held Carlton to just six goals last weekend. The Magpies are backed to scrape home in a close one with the total points to stay under 168.5.

Collingwood have won seven of their past nine matches.
The Magpies have conceded just 22 goals in their past three matches, just over seven per game.
The past 10 matches between the two sides have been decided by 39.5 points or less, six of those by less than 10 points.
Sydney rank 16th for disposals and contested possessions, the Magpies are 6th and 7th in these measures.

Head to Head

Sydney have won five of the past six between the two sides and accounted for the Pies on two occasions in 2024.

Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney both averaged 30 disposals in those two matches, while Will Hayward booted three goals the last time the two sides met.

Nick Daicos has averaged 27.5 disposals in his past four appearances against the red and white. The past 10 matches between Collingwood and Sydney have resulted in margins less than 39.5 points.

Six of those have been by 10 points or less, including the 2022 Preliminary Final, a one-point margin to the Swans.

Collingwood Magpies Form

Collingwood have rebounded from their hefty loss against GWS in the Opening Round with wins over Port Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton. Their good form is a continuation of their last month of footy in 2024 and the 2023 premiers have now won seven of their past nine matches.

They have bought a high pressure playing style to force turnovers and have conceded just 22 goals in their past three outings. The Pies rank 2nd in the competition for fewest goals conceded and will look to put the squeeze on the Swans forwards.

Craig McRae’s side have shared the load in the middle of the ground with the Daicos brothers prominent, averaging 25+ disposals apiece.

Their opportunistic forwards in Bobby Hill, Lachie Schultz and Jamie Elliott have gone at just over a goal per game, which has been enough to see them sit at 3-1.

Collingwood Magpies Team News

There are some big outs at Collingwood. Dan Houston will miss due to suspension, while Jordan de Goey (ankle) and Lachie Schultz (hamstring) are also out of action. Will Hoskin-Elliott and Ed Allan are in the mix for a return.

Sydney Swans Form

Sydney dropped their first two matches and were lucky to scrape through with a three-point win over Fremantle. The shackles were released with their big margin over North Melbourne last weekend.

They kicked a total of 117 points against North Melbourne, well above their previous best this season (82 against the Lions).

Will Hayward and Joel Amartey combined for eight goals, while Riley Bice had a team-high 26 disposals.

The Swans have not been securing big numbers and rank 16th for disposals and contested possessions, while they are 15th for clearances. Matthew Roberts averages 22.5 disposals this season, the most of any Swan.

Sydney Swans Team News

Logan McDonald returned from a long layoff via the VFL and booted three goals. He is likely to return. Haydn McLean might be the man to make way. Errol Gulden is still at least a month away from making a return.

Verdict

Collingwood v Sydney

Expect a low scoring encounter with the Magpies getting the nod in a close one.

Under 168.5

Total Points

@7/8 - 2 Units

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Collingwood 1-39

Winning Margin

@23/17 - 1 Unit

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