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Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats Tips - Geelong to chalk up a big win against Essendon at the MCG

adam-cusworth
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Last updated: 10 Jun 2025
Adam Cusworth 10 Jun 2025
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  • Geelong Cats are in top-four position, with a 9-4 win-loss record.
  • Essendon Bombers face scoring challenges despite leading in disposals.
  • Injuries plague Essendon's backline; Geelong favored to win comfortably.
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Essendon vs Geelong MCG
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 29: Tom Stewart of the Cats is tackled by Archie Perkins of the Bombers during the round 16 AFL match between Geelong Cats and Essendon Bombers at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on June 29, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats Preview

  • Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats Preview
  • Head to Head 
  • Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
  • Essendon Bombers Team News
  • Essendon Bombers Team List
  • Geelong Cats Form Analysis
  • Geelong Cats Team News
  • Geelong Cats Team List

Geelong will chalk up a big win against Essendon at the MCG on Saturday. 

The perennial finalists sit in the top four after Round 13 with a win-loss record of 9-4 and come off a 24-point win in tough conditions against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend. 

Essendon are 6-6 and in 10th position. They went down to Carlton by eight points and are yet to defeat a side above them on the ladder. 

The Bombers top the competition for disposals but this has not translated to big scores- they are 16th for scoring in the past five weeks. 

Meanwhile, Geelong have shown they are capable of kicking quick goals and top the competition for scoring in the past five rounds. 

With Essendon’s injury depleted backline, this could get ugly. Expect a comfortable win for Geelong, with Jeremy Cameron back amongst it after being held goalless last weekend. Consider a number of Bombers in disposal markets, including Darcy Parish, who made a successful return from injury last weekend.  

  • Geelong have won the past seven matches between the two sides with those coming at an average margin of 51 points.
  • Geelong top the competition for scoring in the past five rounds, Essendon are 16th. 
  • Jeremy Cameron kicked 18 goals in a three-week stretch recently
  • Essendon lead the competition for disposals, Darcy Parish picked up 31 in his return match last weekend.

Head to Head 


Geelong have won the past seven matches between the two sides with those coming at an average margin of 51 points. It was a 45-point margin in Round 16 last season, which was the most recent encounter between the two sides. 

Max Holmes has averaged just under 25 disposals in his past three matches against the Bombers. Jeremy Cameron has kicked six goals from his past three. 

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis


Essendon have lost three of their past four. They suffered a 91-point loss to the Western Bulldogs back in Round 9 and went down by 18 to Brisbane at the GABBA. Their win came against Richmond by 23 points back in Round 12. Against sides above them on the ladder, the Bombers are 0-5. 

In the past five rounds, Essendon rank 16th for scoring and are going at just 66 points per game. Accuracy kept them in the game against Carlton, kicking 11.4. Peter Wright booted three. The big man has kicked 16 from eight matches this season. 

Essendon top the competition for disposals Darcy Parish picked up 31 disposals in his return match last weekend, while Nic Martin had 32. Martin has had 25+ in each of his last five matches. 

Essendon Bombers Team News


Sam Durham will miss due to a late hit on Carlton’s Adam Cerra last weekend. None of the Bombers injured key position players are due for a return anytime soon. Elijah Tsatas and Vigo Visentini are among those with solid form in the VFL that will be considered. 

Essendon Bombers Team List


Team List yet to be released

Geelong Cats Form Analysis


Geelong have won their past four matches and chalked up wins over West Coast, the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide prior to their win over the Gold Coast Suns. Scoring was tough in the wet conditions against the Suns and the Cats 9.7 scoreline was enough. They kicked 100+ in their four games prior to that and top the competition for scoring in the past five weeks. 

Jeremy Cameron was held goalless but kicked 18 goals in the three rounds prior to the win over the Suns. Conditions suited the smalls alot better and Tyson Stengle booted four goals. He has kicked 11 in his past five matches, registering 2+ in four of those. 

Bailey Smith missed the Suns match with a hamstring issue and is the Cats leading disposal winner this season, picking up 30+ in his past five outings. Max Holmes had a career-best 40 disposals against the Suns. 

Geelong Cats Team News


Smith’s hamstring issue was described as ‘tightness’ by the club and he will be monitored at training. Shannon Neale rolled his ankle and was subbed out early. Patrick Dangerfield made his return from injury and was quiet in the forward line. Jack Bowes is expected to return from a hamstring. 

Geelong Cats Team List


Team List yet to be released

Verdict

Geelong too strong with Cameron amongst the goals. Darcy Parish to find plenty of footy for the Bombers
Best Bet1: Geelong -29.5 Handicap +29.5 @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Jeremy Cameron To Kick 3+ goals @11/17 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Darcy Parish To Have 25+ disposals @7/10 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Geelong -29.5
Handicap +29.5
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