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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Tips & Preview - Cats to win AFL Prelim Final and book Grand Final date

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: 19 Sep 2024

Jeremy Darke 19 Sep 2024

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Geelong vs Brisbane expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
Geelong have won 6 of the last 8 games against Brisbane
Will the Cats book a spot in the Grand Final?

Expired

Cats to edge the Lions in the Prelim (Getty)

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Predictions

Geelong Cats have continued to defy age and a one step away from another Grand Final. The Cats' week off last weekend can be crucial with Geelong backed to defeat the Lions in this Preliminary Final.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Predictions
Head to Head
Geelong Cats Form
Geelong Cats Team News
Brisbane Lions Form
Brisbane Lions Team News

Geelong have won 6 of the past 8 games against Brisbane.
Brisbane haven’t beaten Geelong in Melbourne since 2004.
Geelong leads the AFL with 13.7 marks inside 50 and are third with a goal efficiency of 26.1%
Brisbane had a positive goal accuracy in just 36% of their games in 2024 and have not been on the positive side in their past 5 matches.

Head to Head

Geelong got the win back in Round 6 by 63-37, punishing Brisbane’s inaccuracy with the Lions kicking 4.13 in the match in monsoon-type weather at the Gabba.

Geelong have got the better of Brisbane in the head to head battle over the past six seasons, winning six of nine matches. That statistic also includes two finals games in 2020 and 2022.

Brisbane have not beaten Geelong in 20 years in Melbourne.

Geelong Cats Form

The Cats blasted past Port Adelaide in the first week of the Finals, awarding themselves with a week’s rest after a 138-54 crushing of the Power.

The Cats went on a second half run of 11 goals to one with forwards Tyson Stengle, Shaun Mannagh and Gryan Miers combining for 10 majors in the match.

In the midfield it was Max Holmes and Patrick Dangerfield who did the damage on the ground with 52 disposals between them and 13 inside 50s.

The strength of Geelong has been their smalls and ground attack this season that has managed to put the ball inside 50 and pin it in the area.

The territory battle is going to be as important as ever against Brisbane and big performances from Dangerfield and Holmes will be key to their success this weekend.

Geelong Cats Team News

Mark O’Connor had wrist surgery and was ruled out for the remainder of the season. So too is Gary Rohan who suffered a concussion and is still recovering from a fractured skull.

Tom Stewart is a good chance of being named for the prelim against the Lions.

Brisbane Lions Form

Brisbane put in an emphatic performance against GWS last weekend, digging themselves out from a 44-point hole in the third quarter with a run of 5 straight goals before the Giants answered to end the third term.

Brisbane then clawed all the way back in the fourth with another 5-0 goal run to take the lead by 5 points with just a couple of minutes remaining and managed to lock it down and win 105-100.

Joe Daniher found his aim in the clutch moments kicking the final two goals for Brisbane and finishing with 4.1 for the match. Jarrod Berry (27), Will Ashcroft (27), Dayne Zorko (25) and Hugh McCluggage (24) were all influential, topping Brisbane’s disposals count and getting the ball down inside their forward 50.

The territory battle has been Brisbane’s strength all season, ranked 2nd in the AFL for inside 50 differential. Where it has come undone is the accuracy on goal where they rank fourth-last in the AFL.

Brisbane Lions Team News

Brisbane have used the early part of the week to rest players like Lachie Neal, Jack Payne and Eric Hipwood who did not participate much, prioritising their recover after a brutal contest against the Giants last week.

No injuries came out of Final Week 2 with a similar lineup expected this weekend.

Verdict

Geelong v Brisbane

This game should see a lot of ground ball battles which will slow things down and keep the total under 172.5.

The Cats are tipped to win the majority of those battles and walk away victors by five points or more.

Geelong -4.5

Handicap/Line

@10/11 - 3 Units

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Under 172.5

Game Total

@10/11 - 2 Units

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