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Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Predictions & Tips - Suns value to win at home

  • Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton predictions for Saturday's AFL Round 4 match
  • The match is being played at Metricon Stadium (10.25am BST)
  • Gold Coast Suns have won their last 2 home matches
  • The Suns are tipped to win against Carlton, who have lost their last 3 away matches
  • Match preview, predictions and latest team news
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Gold Coast Suns are value at home on Saturday (Getty Images)
Gary Emmerson 09 Apr 2021
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Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Predictions


With both sides at 1-2 for the season, this one has the hallmarks of a crucial game even at this stage of the season. With a near coin-flip game, the Suns are tipped to make home advantage count despite being small underdogs. With a total points line of 169.5, unders is value.

  • Gold Coast Suns have won their last 2 home matches.
  • Gold Coast Suns have seen 5 of their last 6 matches against Carlton fall below the 169.5 total point line set.
  • Carlton have lost their last 3 away matches.

Head-to-Head


Carlton hold an 8-5 head to head record over Gold Coast from 13 clashes with the Suns.

The Blues have won the last two meetings, a 99-75 victory in 2019 and a 60-27 win last year.

Gold Coast Suns Form


Gold Coast Suns slipped to an agonising 95-85 defeat to the Crows at the Adelaide Oval on Good Friday.

It was the second tough road trip in the opening three rounds for the Suns, who went down to West Coast Eagles in Perth in Round 1.

Sandwiched in between was an effortless 98-39 win over North Melbourne at Metricon.

Gold Coast Suns Team News


Gold Coast Suns make one change with Jarrod Witts ruled out for the season with an ACL injury.

Caleb Graham comes into the side as his replacement.

Gold Coast Suns Team List


B: J.Bowes, S.Collins, S.Lemmens
HB: O.Markov, C.Ballard, J.Lukosius
C: B.Ellis, D.Swallow, N.Anderson
HF: A.Sexton, N.Holman, W.Powell
F: I.Rankine, B.King, D.MacPherson
FOLL: C.Burgess, B.Ainsworth, T.Miller
I/C: C.Graham, H.Greenwood, J.Harbrow, L.Weller
EMG: W.Brodie, J.Corbett, B.Fiorini, S.Flanders

Carlton Form


Carlton got their season up and running with a 109-64 victory over Fremantle Dockers in Round 3 last weekend.

It was a much-needed win - inspired by Harry McKay's seven goals - for the finals hopefuls, who had lost their opening two games to Richmond Tigers and Collingwood.

The Blues suffered a 25-point loss to premiers Richmond in Round 1.

It was a similar story the following week with Carlton losing by 21 points to the Pies before getting a first win last week.

Carlton Team News


Oscar McDonald (back) and Zac Williams (calf) are both missing from the Blues side.

Will Setterfield missed last week's win over Fremantle due to illness, but is straight back into the Carlton line-up.

Carlton Team List


B: L.Plowman, L.Jones, L.Parks
HB: S.Docherty, J.Weitering, A.Saad
C: S.Walsh, P.Cripps, M.Cottrell
HF: M.Murphy, L.Casboult, P.Dow
F: M.Gibbons, H.McKay, E.Betts
FOLL: M.Pittonet, L.Fogarty, E.Curnow
I/C: S.Petrevski-Seton, W.Setterfield, J.Newnes, J.Silvagni
EMG: M.Kennedy, M.Owies, T.Williamson, L.Stocker

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Verdict

Gold Coast Suns were unfortunate last week and are the value at home. The Blues beat up the Dockers, but Fremantle were without Nat Fyfe. The Blues look under the odds as small favourites back on the road.

Best Bet: Under 169.5 Points Total Points @-112.36 at BetMGM - 2 Units
Value Bet: Gold Coast Suns To Win @-103.09 at bet365 Sport NJ - 2 Units

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