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Hawthorn vs Essendon Bombers Tips - Hawks' perfect start to continue in AFL

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: 13 Mar 2025

Adam Cusworth 13 Mar 2025

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Hawthorn recently beat last year’s Grand Finalists Sydney by 20 points.
Essendon had a challenging end to their 2024 season, finishing 11th.
Injuries are a concern for Essendon, while Hawthorn faces a minor adjustment in team lineup.

Expired

The Hawks to win (Getty Images)

Hawthorn vs Essendon Bombers Preview
Head to Head
Hawthorn Form
Hawthorn Team News
Hawthorn Team List
Essendon Bombers Form
Essendon Bombers Team News
Essendon Bombers Team List

Hawthorn vs Essendon Bombers Preview

Hawthorn were one of just four sides to feature in the Opening Round and defeated last year’s Grand Finalists Sydney Swans by 20 points at the SCG. This will be a close one but the Hawks can get them over the line.

Hawthorn have won 12 of their last 14 home and away matches.
Jai Newcombe has averaged 27 disposals in his last 10 matches.
Zach Merrett has averaged 29 disposals in his past four matches against Hawthorn.
Essendon lost six of their last seven matches in 2024, five of the six losses were by 39 points or less.

Head to Head

Essendon have won their past four matches against Hawthorn, including the corresponding encoutner last year by 24 points. The Hawks cost themselves in that match with inaccuracy and had six more scoring shots.

Three of those four matches were held at the MCG. Essendon were 4-3-1 at the venue in 2024, Hawthorn were 6-4. There last six matches at the MCG have been wins.

Hawthorn Form

Hawthorn were the talk of the AFL world in the second half of 2024, producing a stunning turnaround to go from 3-7 to claim 11 of their last 13 home and away matches before defeating the Western Bulldogs in the Elimnation Final. They then went down narrowly to Port Adelaide.

Opening Round form suggests that the run was no fluke with Sam Mitchell’s side registering a 20-point win over last year’s Grand Finalists, Sydney, at the SCG. They were able to absorb a Swans fightback in that match to steady in the last term.

Hawthorn Team News

Hawthorn are set to lose James Worpel from the side that defeated the Sydney Swans with the midfielder sustaining an ankle injury. Josh Ward looms as his likely replacement and was one of the emergencies heading into that match. Henry Hustwaite is another option.

Hawthorn Team List

B: T.Barrass, B.Hardwick, M.D’Ambrosio

HB: J.Scrimshaw, J.Impey, J.Battle

C: D.Moore, C.Nash, J.Sicily - C

HF: C.Macdonald, H.Morrison, N.Watson

F: J.Ginnivan, M.Chol, W.Day

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Ward, K.Amon

I/C: J.Weddle, J.Newcombe, C.Mackenzie, F.Maginness, S.Frost

EMG: C.Jiath, J.Gunston, L.Breust

Essendon Bombers Form

Essendon battled at the business end in 2024. The Bombers were well and truly in the mix for a top four spot at the half-way mark of the season but won just three of their last 12 matches to crash out of contention, ending the season in 11th position with 11 wins and a draw.

In their Community Series win over Geelong, they registered a slick 17.2 in front of goals, claiming the 21 point win despite registering four less scoring shots. The Bombers led the disposal count (429-365) but had fewer inside 50s (47-58).

Essendon Bombers Team News

The Bombers have faced several pre-season injury concerns, with Darcy Parish (back), Sam Durham (ribs), Jordan Ridley (hamstring), Jye Caldwell (hip), and Ben McKay (ankle) all missing significant time.

Parish’s back injury has not progressed as hoped, making him unlikely for Round 1, while Caldwell has been moved into the starting centre bounce. Small forward Matt Guelfi will miss an extended period with a hamstring injury, and Alwyn Davey Jr. has also suffered a knee injury.

Draftee Isaac Kako impressed in the pre-season, particularly alongside Nate Caddy, who together kicked seven goals in a hit-out against Geelong.

Sam Draper and Nick Bryan are set to lead the ruck rotation, while Dylan Shiel has excelled in a new half-back role. Elijah Tsatas is primed for a breakout season after strong performances in match simulation.

Essendon Bombers Team List

B: A.McGrath, B.McKay, J.Ridley

HB: M.Redman, Z.Reid, J.Prior

C: N.Martin, J.Caldwell, A.Roberts

HF: N.Caddy, K.Langford, A.Perkins

F: H.Jones, S.Draper, I.Kako

FOLL: N.Bryan, S.Durham, Z.Merrett - C

I/C: E.Tsatas, B.Hobbs, D.Shiel, J.Gresham, X.Duursma

EMG: J.Menzie, S.El-Hawli, T.Edwards

Verdict

Hawthorn v Essendon

Hawthorn to account for Essendon despite resistance from Zach Merrett. Jai Newcombe to find plenty of the footy for the Hawks.

Hawthorn

Winning Margin 1-39

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