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Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Tips - Hawks to chalk up first win over Melbourne since 2018

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: 06 May 2025

Adam Cusworth 06 May 2025

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Hawks haven't beaten Demons since 2018, but show promising form.
Demons struggle with scoring, rank 16th for points this year.
Key players: Jack Gunston for Hawks, Christian Petracca for Demons.

Expired

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 23: Christian Petracca of the Demons is tackled by Sam Frost of the Hawks during the 2024 AFL Round 02 match between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Melbourne Demons at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on March 23, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List

Hawthorn can overcome some poor recent form against Melbourne with a big win at the MCG on Saturday.

The Hawks have not beaten the Demons since 2018, losing eight of nine, while a draw was played out between the two sides in 2021.

However, Sam Mitchell’s side have come a long way since the last time the two sides met, which was in Round 2 last season. They produced a stunning run late last year, while the Demons capitulated, and come into this match up with a 6-2 win-loss record, while Melbourne are 3-5.

Last weekend, the Hawks accounted for Richmond by 65 points with Josh Battle, Massimo D’Ambrosio and Jai Newcombe among the key contributors.

Melbourne took out the Round 8 match against West Coast, overcoming a slow start to score by 32. That made it three on the trot for the Demons, their first three match winning streak since Round’s 2-4 last season.

But there are question marks on their ability to score. They rank 16th for points this year and have been handed a relatively easy draw so far with just two matches coming against finalists from last season.

Hawthorn have shored up their backline and will restrict Melbourne, while they have a number of goal kicking options up forward.

Take them to cover the line on offer. Jack Gunston should be amongst the goals again, while Christian Petracca looms as Melbourne’s best player.

The Hawks have won their three matches against sides that didnt make finals in 2024 by an average of 47 points this season.
Melbourne rank 16th for points scored this year
Christian Petracca has averaged 28 disposals in his past four matches against Hawthorn
Jack Gunston has kicked 16 goals in his past four matches.

Head to Head

The Hawks have not beaten the Demons since 2018, losing eight of nine, while a draw was played out between the two sides in 2021. Melbourne were 55-point winners the last time the two sides met, which was in Round 2 last season.

Christian Petracca had 29 disposals in that match, while Bailey Fritsch booted five goals. James Worpel and James Sicily both had 27 disposals for Hawthorn. Petracca has averaged 28 disposals in his past four matches against the Hawks.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis

Melbourne lost the first five games in 2025 but have since won three. The Demons have played just two matches against finalists from last year, for two losses.

Max Gawn comes in with some hot form and had 35 disposals last weekend, while Christian Petracca picked up 29. Petracca is averaging a tick over 25 disposals this season.

Scoring has been an issue for Melbourne. They are averaging just 75 points per game, ranking 16th in the competition. The Demons will need to restrict Hawthorn’s disposals and are also 16th for disposals conceded.

Melbourne Demons Team News

Harrison Petty will miss for Melbourne with a concussion. Clayton Oliver missed the match against West Coast and a decision on his availabilty will be made during the week. Jacob van Rooyen is a chance to come back in after serving some time in the VFL.

Melbourne Demons Team List

-team list yet to be released

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis

Hawthorn won their first four matches this season before dropping two. They have rebounded with easy wins against West Coast and Richmond. The Hawks have won their three matches against sides that didnt make finals in 2024 by an average of 47 points this season.

Sam Mitchell’s side rank 4th for scoring in 2025 and 4th for fewest points conceded. They are 4th for disposals and top the competition for fewest disposals conceded.

Jai Newcombe is averaging 25 disposals per game, while Jack Gunston has kicked 20 goals from six appearances in 2025.

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Hawthorn’s Jack Scrimshaw and Karl Amon missed last weekend under concussion protocols. Scrimshaw has twice been concussed this year and is unlikely to be rushed back in. Cam Mackenzie missed the Tigers match with a hand injury but might be a week away. Calsher Dear has played two matches in the VFL but was quiet for Box Hill. Ned Reeves was dominant in the ruck but Hawthorn have opted to go with just Lloyd Meek in their games so far.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

-team list yet to be released

Verdict

Melbourne v Hawthorn

Hawthorn to cover the line with Gunston amongst the goals again. Petracca a key player for Melbourne

Hawthorn Hawks -22.5

Handicap +22.5

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