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Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Tips & Predictions - Port to Power over the Hawks

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: 18 May 2024

Ryan Tucker 18 May 2024

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Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
Port predicted to win with a 40+ margin
Port leads the head-to-head series 3-2 since 2019

Expired

Connor Rozee will return against the Hawks (Getty Images)

Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Preview

Port Adelaide have won every other game since their 4-1 start to the season, but they should get back to back wins this week. The best bet in this game is the 40+ Winning Margin for Port Adelaide.

Port Adelaide average the 2nd most Inside 50’s per game at 57.1
Hawthorn average the second least amount of Goals per game at 9.9
The Hawks allow their opposition 13.8 Goals per game, the 4th most of any team in the AFL
The Over has hit in 3 of the last 4 games between these teams

Head to Head

Port Adelaide and Hawthorn have met only once per season since the beginning of 2019. The Power hold a 3-2 advantage in games played with a 151-96 victory in Round 23 last year their biggest Winning Margin across that period.

The Winning Margin has been 40+ in the last two games but was between 1-39 in the three preceding matchups. The Game Total has gone Over in 3 of 5 games.

Port Adelaide have won two of the last three games played between these clubs at Adelaide Oval.

Port Adelaide Form

Port returned to the winners circle last week with a nervous win over the Geelong Cats. Midway through the 2nd quarter the Power had extended their lead to 49 points in a stunning first half display kicking 12 goals 5 behinds.

The Cats then roared back to life in the second half kicking 9 goals to Ports 3 with both teams having their fair share of misses.

Both teams were efficient Inside 50 but it was Port Adelaides improvement at Stoppage Clearances that allowed them to get on top of their opponent with 33 on the day, 8 above their season average.

Port Adelaide Team News

Connor Rozee has proven his fitness and will make his return to the team likewise Jase Burgoyne who is listed on the interchange and may yet still miss the game or be designated sub.

Quenton Narkle, Trent McKenzie and Lachie Jones are still all at least a week away.

Port Adelaide Team List

B: K.Farrell, E.Ratugolea, B.Zerk-Thatcher

HB: M.Bergman, A.Aliir, D.Houston

C: T.Boak, O.Wines, W.Drew

HF: D.Byrne-Jones, T.Marshall, M.Georgiades

F: C.Rozee - C, C.Dixon, W.Rioli

FOLL: D.Visentini, J.Horne-Francis, Z.Butters

I/C (FROM): J.Mead, J.McEntee, R.Burton, F.Evans, J.Finlayson, J.Sinn, J.Burgoyne

IN: C.Rozee, J.Sweet, J.Burgoyne

OUT: Nil

Hawthorn Form

Hawthorn secured their 3rd win of the season last weekend against the Saints in a game that was almost like the Hawks of old.

They led from start to finish and even though St Kilda were within a goal when the siren went, the effort from the Hawks players to secure the win was immense.

Hawthorn improved on their Disposal Efficiency in the game against St Kilda, a stat that they rank 4th in this season. They also upped their defensive efforts, laying 77 Tackles in the game - a big difference from their season average of 59.

Hawthorn Team News

Jack Scrimshaw has been suspended for one week following a dangerous tackle in last weeks game. Jack Gunston has been managed.

Mabior Chol makes his return to the starting team slotting in at forward whilst Ethan Phillips will make his debut from the halfback line.

Hawthorn Team List

B: J.Impey - C, S.Frost, J.Weddle

HB: K.Amon, E.Phillips, J.Serong

C: S.Mitchell, C.Nash, B.Hardwick

HF: W.Day, C.Macdonald, N.Watson

F: J.Ginnivan, L.Breust, M.Chol

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, D.Moore

I/C (FROM): C.Mackenzie, F.Maginness, M.D’Ambrosio, B.Macdonald, C.Jiath, M.Ramsden, C.Dear

IN: E.Phillips, M.Chol, B.Macdonald, C.Jiath, M.Ramsden

OUT: J.Scrimshaw (Suspension), J.Gunston (Managed)

Verdict

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

Port are the much better team and if they can buck the inconsistency trend that saw them falter against the Crows then who knows where this one finishes. The Big Win is the best value bet with predictive modelling having this game finishing with a big score to the Power.

Port Adelaide 40+

Winning Margin

@5/4 - 2 Units

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Game Total

@9/10 - 2 Units

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