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Sydney Swans vs Carlton Tips & Preview - Swans to edge to AFL win over Blues

Last updated: 15 May 2024
Ryan Tucker 15 May 2024
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  • Sydney vs Carlton expert predictions for Friday’s AFL game
  • Sydney top the AFL ladder and are 4-0 at home
  • Will the Swans be too good for the misfiring Blues?
Nick Blakey
Swans to win against Carlton (Getty Images)

Sydney Swans vs Carlton Predictions

Sydney Swans are 4-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of 33.5 points per game, and I'm expecting the AFL ladder leaders to record another clear win over Carlton.
  • Sydney Swans vs Carlton Predictions
  • Head to Head 
  • Sydney Swans Form
  • Sydney Swans Team News
  • Carlton Form
  • Carlton Team News

  • Sydney are the best Scoring team in the league averaging 14.9 Goals per game
  • The Swans also have the best Scoring Defence in the AFL allowing only 9.2 Goals per game to their opposition this season
  • The three most recent Carlton losses to Sydney have been by 19 or more points
  • Sydney are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

Head to Head 

These two teams have met six times in the regular season since the beginning of the 2019 season. The wins are split 3-3. 

Carlton though have the most recent success, knocking Sydney out of the title race in week 1 of the 2023 finals. 

Sydney Swans Form

Sydney are the in form team of the competition right now having only lost 1 game so far this season.

Given it was to one of the worst teams in the comp but they have consistently shown their detractors that they are a class team at both ends of the ground. 

The Swans are getting Inside 50 at the 4th best rate in the league and last week against the Dockers, who are one of the best defensive teams in the AFL, Sydney were able to get 51 entries. 

They also managed to limit their turnovers which is something that has been a small smudge on their otherwise stellar season.

Sydney Swans Team News

Tom McCartin and Lachlan McAndrew both need another week in concussion protocols.

Nick Blakey will be right to go though after suffering a head knock himself in the win over the Dockers last weekend.

Carlton Form

Carlton should officially change their moniker to the Carlton Close Gamers as they once again closed out a game with a one point win. 

In nine of their last 15 games the final Winning Margin has been 6 points or less with Carlton taking the victory in all but two of those matchups. 

They are undoubtedly cool under pressure but one needs to bring in to perspective that the fact they are in this position to start with is probably not the hallmark of a great team. 

In any case the Blues lead the league in Centre Clearances and Contested Possessions, two stats that are indicators of better teams.

Carlton Team News

Adam Cerra will miss the next few weeks with a hammy in a massive blow to the Blues midfield. Matt Cottrell will also miss a month with a foot injury while David Cuningham’s timeline has been pushed back following complications in his recovery.

 Marc Pittonet and Zac Williams will need to prove their fitness before selection whilst the trio of Adam Saad, Jesse Motlop and Lachie Fogarty are expected back next week.


Sydney are in dominant form and I'm backing the Swans to cover a -12.5 handicap at home. Over the points total is also tipped.

Best Bet1: Sydney -12.5 Line @9/10 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 170.5 Game Total @9/10 at Grosvenor Sports - 2 Units
Sydney -12.5
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