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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Live Stream & Tips - Hawks to take lead in NBL Championship series

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 15 Mar 2025

Ryan Tucker 15 Mar 2025

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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United expert predictions for Sunday’s Grand Final Series NBL matchup
Hawks to take lead with Game 3 victory over Melbourne
Hawks expected to win 1st quarter with top performances from Hickey & Froling

Expired

Sam Froling to shine the Hawks (Getty Images)

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Preview
Head to Head
Illawarra Hawks Form
Melbourne United Form

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Preview

The Hawks levelled the Championship series with victory in Game 2 and are backed to take the lead with success in front of their home fans on Sunday.

Illawarra are backed to start quickly and win the 1st quarter and also cover the short line. Will Hickey is taken to surpass his points total with Sam Froling also going over his total for a third consecutive game.

Illawarra have lost only 1 of their last 12 first quarters and have not lost a 1st quarter to Melbourne this season.
Melbourne had 25 fouls in Game 2 compared to just 13 in Game 1.
Will Hickey scored 14pts in game 1 on 46% shooting, only 8pts in game 2 but on 28% shooting.
Sam Froling has scored 16pts and 23pts in this Series on top of an average of 16.6 pts against Melbourne in their 3 game regular season series.

Head to Head

2024/25 Grand Final Series

Mar 12th 25: Melbourne 100-102 Illawarra

Mar 8th 25: Illawarra 88-96 Melbourne

2024/25 Regular Season Series

Jan 18th 25: Illawarra 117-95 Melbourne

Dec 13th 24: Melbourne 93-106 Illawarra

Oct 24th 24: Illawarra 87-92 Melbourne

Illawarra Hawks Form

The Hawks snatched a win on the road at John Cain Arena on Wednesday thanks to a Tyler Harvey three point shot over the head of Ian Clark off an inbound pass with only 5.7 seconds remaining in the game.

The game winning shot came after Harvey fouled Clark on the previous play with the United player hitting 3-3 from the charity stripe to put Melbourne ahead.

There was a distinct adjustment from Illawarra in Game 2 taking 8 fewer shots from 3pt range and dominating the rebounding 42-35 compared to Game 1 (54-39).

Not only did the extra rebounding give the Hawks more points it restricted Melbourne from scoring on the extra possessions bringing their 2nd Chance Points from 22 pts in Game 1 to 9 pts in Game 2.

The Hawks bench had one of their lowest scoring games of the season, contributing just 25 points to the total compared to an average of 36 on the season and 46 in Game 1.

Melbourne United Form

Melbourne United could have been forgiven for thinking they were heading back to Game 3 in Illawarra 2-0 up...twice.

First the Ian Clark foul which gifted United the lead with Clark sinking three consecutive free throws to put them in front 100-99 with 14 seconds remaining in the game.

Then after Tyler Harvey hit a hail mary three over the head of Clark with 5.7 seconds remaining it all came down to one possession and Chris Goulding had the final shot go halfway down the basket before having it bounce back out and with that the victory slipping from their grasp.

Melbourne were not able to make the adjustments to the change in style that Illawarra came with as their big men once again encountered early foul trouble. United gave up 58 points in the paint to their opponent, 8 pts more than they did in Game 1.

Melbourne’s bench hit 57.8% from three in the game while the team went for a combined 46% in the game.

Verdict

Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United

Take the Hawks to win the 1st quarter and cover the short line with Will Hickey to surpass his points total with a cleaner shooting night together with Sam Froling going over his total for a third consecutive game.

Hawks -1.5

1st Qtr Line

@9/10 - 2 Units

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W Hickey over 9.5

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