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New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks Tips & Live Stream - Hawks to edge towards NBL Minor Premiership

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 04 Feb 2025
Ryan Tucker 04 Feb 2025
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  • New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks expert predictions for Wednesday’s Round 20 NBL matchup
  • Breakers have scored just 3 wins in last 18 games
  • Breakers offer value as underdogs in final game
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Illawarra Hawks and New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers (Getty)
  • New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks Preview
  • Head to Head 
  • New Zealand Breakers Form
  • Illawarra Hawks Form

New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks Preview


The Hawks have won three straight over the Breakers and momentum is clearly lacking for the home team with just three wins in their last 18 games. I don’t think the Breakers win but the large line on offer provides some value on the underdog to cover.

  • Illawarra are 0-3 ATS as double digit favourites this season. NZ are 1-1 as double digit underdogs.
  • Double digit Underdogs are 7-4 ATS this season in the NBL.
  • The Breakers are 5-2 at Spark Arena this season, both losses being by 10 or less.
  • Illawarra average 100 pts per game in 11 matchups against the top 4 defensive teams this season.

Head to Head 


2024/25 Match Results

Jan 11th 25: Illawarra 109-71 New Zealand
Nov 28th 24: Illawarra 108-100 New Zealand

2023/24 Season Series

Illawarra Hawks won 2-1

New Zealand Breakers Form


New Zealand have had one of the bigger rollercoaster seasons of any team this year. After being the only team to travel to the US for NBA pre-season matchups they came back and continued their dominant style of play winning a total of 7 of their first 10 games to sit atop the NBL standings. 

Then the wheels fell off, 8 straight losses turned into a 3-15 record heading into the final round of NBL25 with suspensions, roster changes and injuries all playing their part in the demise of the New Zealand Breakers. 

With rumours swirling around which players will remain with the team for next year there will be some opportunities for players to stake their claim in the last game of the season in front of coach Koponen. 

NZ are the 3rd ranked defensive team in the league allowing an average of 91.2 pts per game to opponents on the season and have restricted opposing teams to the lowest number of rebounds per game in their matchups.

Sadly things have not gone as well as they had hoped offensively with the team ranked 9th in scoring with 85.8 pts per game, one of only three teams to have an average under 90 points. 

Illawarra Hawks Form


The Hawks took care of business on the road in Tassie last week beating up on the defending champions 102-78, the victory their 4th straight when scoring 100+ points.

Illawarra sit atop the NBL standings with one less loss than the 2nd placed Melbourne United who have also played an extra game. 

They also have a far superior point differential meaning that one win out of their final two games will secure the minor premiership for the team. 

The Hawks have been the best scoring team all season long and head into the final round of the regular season averaging 101.9 pts per game with the highest number of rebounds per game at 43.9 aswell as the league’s best FG% at 49%.

On the other end of the court the defensive numbers have fallen off given the high scores in the Illawarra games. The team is ranked 6th, allowing 92.1 pts per game to opponents on the season.

Verdict

Take Illawarra to go under their team total with New Zealand showing up for their home fans. I don’t think the Breakers win but the large line on offer provides some value on the underdog to cover.

Best Bet1: New Zealand +10.5 Line @9/10 at 10bet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Illawarra Under 99.5 Team Total @17/20 at bet365 - 1 Unit
New Zealand +10.5
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