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Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Predictions & Tips – Canelo To Retain By Decision

Last updated: 29 Sep 2023
Leigh Copson 29 Sep 2023
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  • Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo tips for Saturday, September 30
  • Fight to take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Will Canelo retain his world super-middleweight titles?
Canelo Alvarez (Getty Images)
    Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Predictions & Tips
  • Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Predictions & Tips
  • Canelo Alvarez Form
  • Jermell Charlo Form

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Predictions & Tips

Canelo Alvarez is tipped to successfully defend his world titles.

Alvarez is on the downturn, but Jermell Charlo is an aggressive fighter and that plays into his hands.

I expect to see a crafty and calculated display from Canelo that earns him a decision victory.

  • Canelo Alvarez is 7-0 at super-middleweight
  • Alvarez is unbeaten in his last 14 world title defences
  • Each of Canelo’s last 3 fights have gone the distance
  • Jermell Charlo has never been knocked out in his career

Canelo Alvarez Form

Canelo Alvarez is the defending IBF, WBA (Super), WBC and WBO world super-middleweight champion with a professional record of 59-2-2 (39 KOs).

Alvarez won super-middleweight gold for the first time in December 2018 when he stopped Rocky Fielding in the third round to win the WBA (Regular) title.

He followed that up with a decision win against Daniel Jacobs at middleweight and an 11th round knockout of Sergey Kovalev at light-heavyweight, before returning to the division.

The 33-year-old Mexican beat Callum Smith by decision to claim the WBA (Super), WBC and Ring Magazine titles.

Alvarez then stopped Avni Yildirim inside three rounds to defend those titles, before adding the WBO belt with an eighth-round stoppage of Billy Joe Saunders.

Canelo then became undisputed champion of the division by stopping Caleb Plant in the penultimate round in November 2021.

In his next fight he moved up to light-heavyweight once again, but this time came up short as he dropped a decision to WBA (Super) champion Dmitry Bivol.

A return to super-middleweight in September 2022 brought a return to winning ways though.

He won his trilogy fight with Gennady Golvkin via decision to retain his world titles, and then followed that up with a unanimous decision win over John Ryder in his latest defence in May.

Jermell Charlo Form

Jermell Charlo is the undisputed world light-middleweight champion with a professional record of 35-1-1 (19 KOs).

Charlo became a world champion for the first time in his career in May 2016 when he stopped John Jackson in the eighth round to win the WBC light-middleweight title.

He then knocked out Charles Hatley in the sixth round and Erickson Lubin in the first round to successful retain the title, before earning a majority decision win over Austin Trout.

The 33-year-old American failed to make a fourth successful defence though, as he dropped a unanimous decision to Tony Harrison.

Charlo rebounded with a third-round stoppage of Jorge Cota, and followed that up by avenging his defeat to Harrison with an 11th round knockout to regain the WBC title.

He then added the WBA (Super), IBF and Ring Magazine titles in his next fight, stopping Jeison Rosario in the eighth round.

Charlo’s first attempt to unify the entire division ended in disappointment in September 2021, when he went to a split decision draw with WBO title-holder Brian Castano.

The two men fought again in May 2022 though, and this time the American walked away with all of the belts.

He stopped Castano in the 10th round of their contest, but has not fought since that night.


Canelo is not the fighter he once was, but he is backed to remain undisputed champion.

Charlo’s aggression is likely to be his undoing as Alvarez uses all of his skill and experience to catch the judges’ eyes.

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