The final race on St Patrick’s Day at the Cheltenham Festival is the Kim Muir Challenge Cup. This three-and-a-quarter mile handicap chase is open to horses rated 145 or below. Usually, only amateur and conditional jockeys are allowed to ride, but with amateur sport banned in the UK until April, professional jockeys can participate for the first time.
I’ve taken a look through the last decade of results from the Kim Muir and picked out three recurring trends.
All of the last 12 winners carried 11st 4 or more
All of the last 10 winners had run at least five times over fences
All of the last 10 winners had run in at least two Graded races during their careers
Run Wild Fred will bid to follow in the footsteps of Milan Native, who was also a maiden over fences when he won this race 12 months ago. Time To Get Up is also fancied for Jonjo O’Neill and JP McManus, but we’re taking the market leaders on with two each-way alternatives.
HOLD THE NOTE was my each-way selection in the Northern Trust Handicap last season, and ran well to finish third, considering he was giving weight to two classy sorts in Imperial Aura and Galvin.
Mick Channon’s charge has failed to win so far this term, losing out to the likes of Shan Blue, Next Destination and my fancy for the Ultima, Happygolucky. After dropping down to a mark of 138 in the handicap, Channon’s charge produced a season’s best display at Newbury last time out, going down narrowly to a progressive novice in Enrilo.
Hold The Note remains a maiden after nine starts over fences, so his will to win has to be questioned. However, he’s held his own at a high level on a number of occasions and we know he’ll deal with the track. He’ll love bouncy spring ground and I’m confident he will see out this trip. Channon’s charge sits six pounds lower than his career-high mark over fences, and offers plenty of each-way appeal at 12/1.
Hold The Note (left) finished second to Two For Gold (right) in a Grade Two at Warwick last season. (Getty)
I don’t understand why STORM CONTROL is a 33/1 outsider to win the Kim Muir. Kerry Lee’s eight-year-old has won twice here at Cheltenham this season, making all to win in November, before surviving a late scare to land the Grade Three Handicap Chase run over the Kim Muir trip the following month.
Last time out, Storm Control attempted to lay-up with Captain Chaos in the Classic Chase at Warwick, but faded rapidly in the final half-mile and was eventually pulled up. Lee’s eight-year-old clearly didn’t enjoy the softer ground at Warwick last day, and the sharp nature of that track didn’t suit either.
Stablemate, Demachine is also entered here and sits at a much shorter price, while Storm Control is shorter in the betting for the Ultima. Demachine has never run around Cheltenham before and his best performances this season have come around Ascot. Storm Control, on the other hand, is proven over both track and trip, and a rating of 142 puts him perfectly in the picture for this handicap.
Lee would be foolish not to throw Storm Control into the final race on day three of the Cheltenham Festival, and he’d have a massive chance if he was to turn up.
Verdict
Hold The Note placed on his Cheltenham Festival debut last year, and has dropped to an appealing mark in the handicap.
Storm Control, who's won twice at Cheltenham this season, looks overpriced at 33/1, so he'll be our second selection.
2021 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Tip 1: Hold The Note Each-Way @12/1 at bet365 - 8 Units
2021 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Tip 2: Storm Control Each-Way @33/1 at bet365 - 5 Units
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