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Pakistan vs South Africa 1st Test Predictions & Tips - Day 4 Tips

  • Pakistan vs South Africa predictions for the 1st Test match
  • South Africa lead by 29 runs heading into the 4th day in Karachi
  • South Afirica were 187/4 at stumps on day 3
  • Aiden Markram dismissal key to Pakistan's chances
  • Full match preview and predictions
Babar Azam Test cricket
Babar Azam has scored 100+ runs in 3 of his last 4 Test innings' on home soil (Getty Images)
Ralph Staniforth 28 Jan 2021
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Pakistan vs South Africa 1st Test Day 3 Tips

 
State of play: South Africa headed into day 3 of the 1st Test in Karachi in Pakistan in a perilous position. They had let Pakistan off the hook on day 2 after the hosts were on 29/4.

Pakistan began day 3 on 308/8 and then went on to score 378 before being bowled out. That meant Pakistan held a 158-run lead. It looked all but over for the visitors at that stage.

The Proteas showed some great fight with the bat on day three, reaching 187/4 at stumps. It should have been better with Aiden Markram and Rassie van der Dussen putting on a 127-run partnership for the second wicket.

Unfortunately, as the day drew to a close, South Africa lost three wickets in the final 30 minutes for 10 runs. Van der Dussen (64), Aiden Markram (74) and Faf du Plessis (10) were the dismissed batsmen. Dean Elgar was the first wicket fo fall.

South Africa will start day 4 with captain Quinton de Kock and nightwatchman, Keshav Maharaj at the wicket. Had the visitors not lost those late wickets, they could have been considered favourites, but they are now technically 29/4 and much will be reliant on what De Kock and next batsman in, Temba Bavuma can produce.

The Proteas will want to add a minimum of another 150 runs, giving themselves a lead of around 180. That won't be a winning total, but late on day 4 and day 5 it will not be easy to bat for Pakistan.

Anything under 150-run lead should see Pakistan cruise to victory. It is very nicely balanced however.

Tips: Quinton de Kock starts day 4 on 2 not out, there is value in backing him to score over 34.5 runs at 2.37 with bet365.

Temba Bavuma has not had the best of batting times of late, but he is one of South Africa's better players of spin. While the markets are not available right now, him top scoring or scoring 50+ runs could offer superb value.
                 

Pre-Test Pakistan vs South Africa Predictions


South Africa have historically struggled on sub-continent pitches and have an inexperienced squad. Pakistan to win is my best bet while the world class Babar Azam can score big in the first innings.

  • Pakistan’s Babar Azam has scored 50+ runs in 6 of his last 9 Test innings’.
  • Pakistan’s Babar Azam has scored 100, 60, 102 & 143 runs in his last 4 Test innings’ at home.
  • Pakistan have won 2 of their last 3 matches at home.
  • South Africa’s Dean Elgar 127, 31 & 95 runs in his last 3 Test matches.

Head to Head


South Africa have won four of their last five Test matches against Pakistan. The last match ended in a 107-run win for South Africa in January 2019.

These two teams have not played in Pakistan for 13 years.

Pakistan Form


Pakistan have lost three and drawn two of their last five Test matches. Three of those matches were against England away and two against New Zealand away.

Pakistan will be far more comfortable in home conditions so results are expected to improve. Test cricket only returned to Pakistan in 2019 after a 12 year absence from the country.

In their last match, Pakistan lost by an innings and 176 runs to New Zealand in Christchurch.  Batting first Pakistan scored 297 with Azhar Ali top scoring on 93 runs. New Zealand responded with a huge 659 runs.

Pakistan were then dismissed for 186 in their second innings as no batsmen managed to pass the 50 run mark.

Pakistan Injuries & Team News


Captain, Babar Azam missed both matches in New Zealand through injury but returns for this series.

Conditions will determine what the bowling lineup looks like but unlike on their tours to New Zealand and England, Pakistan are expected to play two or three spinners.

South Africa Form


South Africa have only played two Test matches since lockdown began in March 2020. That was a recent home series against Sri Lanka, which the Proteas won 2-0.

The 2nd Test took place at the Wanderers where Anrich Nortje took 6-56 to dismiss Sri Lanka for 157 runs. Dean Elgar’s 127 runs got South Africa to a total of 302.

Sri Lanka managed 211 in their second innings, leaving South Africa to score 66 for victory. The hosts did that without losing a wicket.

The issue for South Africa is their continuous struggles in the sub-continent. They have a very inexperienced team at the moment which could cause major issues on spinning pitches.

South Africa Injuries & Team News


South Africa don’t have much experience of sub-continent conditions and not one player in the squad has played Test cricket in Pakistan before.

Kagiso Rabada will almost certainly return to the starting lineup after recovering from injury. Lutho Sipamla is likely to miss out.

The rest of the bowling lineup will be interesting. Keshav Maharaj will start as first choice spinner but there will need to be a second option. That is likely to be Tabraiz Shamsi while George Linda could offer a third spin bowling option.

Pakistan vs South Africa FAQ

What is the Pakistan vs South Africa best bet?

Pakistan have won two of their last three home Test matches. The best bet for this match is for Pakistan to come away with victory.

Where can I watch the Pakistan vs South Africa live stream?

Our live streaming calendar shows you where to watch the Pakistan vs South Africa live stream.

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Verdict

Day 4 Tips: I'm backing South Africa to score over 325.5 runs in their 2nd innings. They are currently on 187/4.

Quinton de Kock needs to play a captains knock on day 4. I expect him to dig in and score over 34.5 runs.

Best Bet: SA over 325.5 Runs Over/Under team runs 2nd Innings @-111.11 at BetMGM - 3 Units
Over 34.5 Runs Tip: Quinton de Kock Best South Africa 2nd Innings Batsman @125.00 at bet365 Sport NJ - 2 Units

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28 Jan 2021

Pakistan v South Africa 1st Test Day 3