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Excel Esports vs Fnatic Tips & Predictions – A Must-Win Match For Both Teams

Tit Krajnik

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Last updated: 26 Aug 2023

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Tit Krajnik 26 Aug 2023

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Excel Esports vs Fnatic League of Legends betting tips for Sunday, August 27, at LoL EMEA Championship (LEC) 2023 Season Finals (18:00 CEST)
The winner will guarantee at least a spot in the Worlds Qualifying Series
Fnatic are priced as favourites

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Fnatic LoL (Getty Images)

Excel Esports vs Fnatic Predictions

Excel and Fnatic will cross swords on Sunday, August 27, in the second round of the lower bracket at the League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2023 Season Finals. It’ll mark their second meeting of the postseason, with Excel winning the first series 3-1.

Excel Esports vs Fnatic Predictions
Head to Head
Excel Esports Form
Excel Esports Squad & Team News
Fnatic Form
Fnatic Squad & Team News

Despite beating Fnatic the last time they met, Excel Esports enter this match as 3.25 underdogs, whereas Fnatic are priced as 1.33 favourites. At the offered price, Fnatic are given a 75.2% implied probability to win the game, which is a surprisingly high number considering they already lost against Excel.

Fnatic have a higher ceiling
Excel Esports are very good
At the offered betting odds, Excel Esports seem underrated

Head to Head

Excel Esports and Fnatic last met during the LEC 2023 Summer Playoffs, when Excel Esports won.

Excel Esports 3-1 Fnatic – July 29, 2023

Excel Esports Form

Excel Esports finished the regular season in third place with a 5-4 record, which isn’t too convincing. However, they’ve looked much better during the LEC 2023 Summer Groups, where Excel Esports crushed MAD Lions (2-0) and defeated SK Gaming (2-1).

Excel continued with their strong showings in the LEC 2023 Summer Playoffs, where they played a very close game against G2 Esports (3-2) and humiliated Fnatic (3-1), but couldn’t show up in the grand finals, where Excel got swept by G2 Esports (0-3).

Regardless of their painful loss in the finals, Excel Esports have looked very good over the last few weeks and are rightly considered as one of the best teams in the league. This, however, comes with an asterisk since Excel Esports didn’t perform well against MAD Lions in the first round of the LEC 2023 Season Finals.

Losing against MAD Lions in the form they’re in is bad as it is, but losing 0-3 has put a huge stain on Excel’s otherwise solid run since the regular season. But how much weight can we put on that loss, and was it perhaps nothing more than an off day for Excel?

Excel Esports Squad & Team News

No changes for Excel Esports.

Andrei "Odoamne" Pascu – top lane
Lee "Peach" Min-gyu – jungle
Felix "Abbedagge" Braun – mid lane
Patrik "Patrik" Jírů – ADC
Dino "LIMIT" Tot – support

Fnatic Form

Fnatic had a remarkable resurgence in the Summer Split. After looking like one of the worst teams in the league throughout the first two splits, Fnatic rose up from the ashes and even came close to winning the regular season title.

In the LEC 2023 Summer Groups, Fnatic slipped against SK (0-2) in the first round but quickly got back on their feet, beating MAD Lions (2-0) and SK (2-0) to qualify for the LEC 2023 Playoffs, where they dismantled Heretics (3-1) but got stomped by Excel Esports (1-3) in the lower bracket final.

As a fifth-seeded team entering the LEC 2023 Season Finals, Fnatic have yet to play a game, which has its advantages. They were given enough time to prepare for this match, which is a plus; however, it’s not like Excel had to rush, considering they had a whole week to forge a plan on how to defeat Fnatic again.

Talent-wise, Excel and Fnatic aren’t that far apart. Fnatic can be considered as a team with a higher ceiling, but they’ve also shown some inconsistencies in their recent outings, which puts a question mark above their chances to justify their tag as 1.33 favourites.

Fnatic Squad & Team News

Fnatic won’t make any roster changes.

Óscar "Oscarinin" Muñoz Jiménez – top lane
Iván "Razork" Martín Díaz – jungle
Marek "Humanoid" Brázda – mid lane
Oh "Noah" Hyeon-taek – ADC
Adrian "Trymbi" Trybus – support

Verdict

Excel Esports v Fnatic

On paper, this looks like it’s Fnatic’s game to lose, and even though Excel Esports defeated Fnatic last time out, Fnatic didn’t play particularly well on that day. However, while I expect Fnatic to win, the offered betting odds don’t make much sense.

Having Fnatic priced as 1.33 favourites is a bit absurd and disrespectful for Excel, who not too long ago looked like the second-best team in the league. Considering the offered betting odds, the value is with Excel Esports.

Excel Esports To Win

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