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VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo Tournament Betting Tips & Outright Predictions

tit-krajnik
09 Jun 2023
Tit Krajnik 09 Jun 2023
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  • VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo is scheduled to begin on Sunday, June 11
  • The tournament will welcome 12 Valorant esports teams from four regions
  • LOUD and Fnatic are the main favourites
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VALORANT Champions
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VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo Predictions


Valorant Champions Tour (VCT) 2023 Masters Tokyo is an upcoming international Valorant esports event scheduled for June 11 – 25 in Chiba, Japan. It'll mark the second international Valorant esports event following VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo and the final tournament ahead of VALORANT Champions, slated for August 6-26.
  • VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo Predictions
  • VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo Odds
  • The Main Favourites – LOUD and Fnatic
  • Don't Sleep On NRG Esports

VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo will welcome 12 Valorant esports teams, including ten squads from the three leagues (EMEA, Pacific, and Americas) and two Chinese teams who qualified via FGC Valorant Invitational 2023: Act 1, who will fight for the lion's share of the $1,000,000 prize pool.

Even though plenty of good teams will compete in VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo, most of the eyes will be directed towards Fnatic and LOUD, who are widely known as two of the strongest Valorant teams in the world. However, while LOUD and Fnatic lead the outright betting markets, a couple of other squads might be able to cause some chaos and compete for a strong finish.

That includes VCT 2023 Pacific League champions Paper Rex and VCT 2023 Americas League runners-up NRG Esports. But can either of the two outperform the VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo finalists?

VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo Odds


According to the VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo odds, Fnatic are the top favourites to win the tournament, priced at 2.25 on the outright betting markets. This gives them a 44.4% implied probability of winning the event, which is a huge number even though Fnatic are indeed very strong.

Sitting behind the Black & Orange are VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo finalists and VCT 2023 Americas League champions LOUD, who are priced at 4.00 to win the tournament, ahead of Paper Rex (7.00), DRX (9.00), and Team Liquid (9.00), who round up a list of teams priced at single digits.



NRG Esports (11.00) and Natus Vincere (12.00) are priced as dangerous outsiders, with Evil Geniuses (41.00), EDward Gaming (67.00), FUT Esports (67.00), T1 (101.00), and Attacking Soul (501.00) as complete outsiders.

The offered betting odds look fair, but it's fair to question whether Fnatic are overrated. Regardless of how good Fnatic have looked this season, having a 44.4% chance of winning the tournament is still very high, so the question remains – is there any value in backing Fnatic?

The Main Favourites – LOUD and Fnatic


Fnatic are objectively the best-performing Valorant esports team of 2023 and potentially the most dominant team we've seen in Valorant esports history.

The European roster kicked off the season by winning VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo with an incredible comeback win against LOUD in the finals, and they've since not shown any signs of slowing down. Fnatic entered VCT 2023 EMEA League as the team to watch, and they delivered by winning the regular season with a 9-0 series record and an 18-1 map differential.

In the VCT 2023 EMEA League playoffs, Fnatic looked just as good but started showing some cracks. In the opening match of the playoffs, they lost a map against FUT Esports (2-1), then smashed Team Liquid (2-0) in the upper bracket finals, but surprised everyone by choking in the finals, where they lost against Team Liquid (1-3).

How big of an issue is Fnatic's defeat in VCT 2023 EMEA League finals? It's not necessarily a big reason for concern, but it showed that Fnatic can fall, bringing up an interesting question of how Fnatic will respond to it. Did it make them lose confidence, or has the defeat helped Fnatic realise they can lose and forced them to improve?

Based on what we've seen this season, Fnatic are the clear favourites to win VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo, but LOUD are not that far behind. The Brazilian team came just a few rounds away from beating Fnatic in the VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo finals, and they've since won VCT 2023 Americas League regular season and playoffs without any significant issues.

Since VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo, LOUD have lost just one game – against NRG Esports during the regular season – but were otherwise unstoppable for their regional opponents. So results-wise, LOUD are up there with Fnatic; granted to properly value the team's accomplishments, we would need to find an answer to whether the EMEA League is any stronger than the Americas League.

Don't Sleep On NRG Esports


LOUD and Fnatic are rightly priced as the favourites to win VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo, but there's one more team we can't ignore. NRG Esports.

NRG Esports had a rough run through VCT Americas League regular season, in which they finished in third place with a 6-3 record; however, they've looked much better in the later stages of the season. Moreover, NRG Esports looked like an entirely different beast in the playoffs.

After losing the first-round match against Evil Geniuses (1-2), NRG Esports found traction in the lower bracket, where they eliminated FURIA Esports (2-0), Cloud9 (2-1), and Evil Geniuses (3-1) to reach the finals. In the finals, NRG Esports had to admit defeat to LOUD, but it was a very close game (9-13, 11-3, 11-13), where NRG Esports proved that they could compete with LOUD.

And yet, NRG Esports are priced as 7.00 underdogs to win VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo, well behind LOUD, at 4.00.

Verdict

I don't have a problem with Fnatic priced as the favourites to win VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo. They are the most dominant team in the world; they've looked invincible throughout most of the season, and only because Fnatic lost the EMEA League finals, this doesn't change the fact that they were by far the best team in EMEA. However, I also don't believe Fnatic deserve to be priced at 2.25.

In a 12-team tournament, there are plenty of chances for Fnatic to slip, and it's not like they'll be playing weak teams. It's also worth remembering that even though Fnatic had to produce a comeback against LOUD in the VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo finals, they also nearly won the game 3-0. But regardless of all that, Fnatic shouldn't be priced at just 2.25, and we're getting far more value backing LOUD to win at nearly double the odds.

LOUD are also in much better form than they were at VCT LOCK//IN São Paulo and seem a bit underrated ahead of VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo – relative to Fnatic. I'll also keep my eye on NRG Esports, who are arguably the third-best team at the tournament, especially since Paper Rex will likely miss one of its key players.

Fnatic are the strongest team, but they're not twice as likely to win VCT 2023 Masters Tokyo as LOUD, and I don't believe NRG Esports are getting enough respect at the offered betting odds.

Best Bet: LOUD To Win Outright @3/1 at bet365 - 2 Units
Outsider Pick: NRG To Reach Finals Outright @9/2 at bet365 - 1 Unit
LOUD To Win
Outright
@3/1 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Bet at bet365
NRG To Reach Finals
Outright
@9/2 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

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