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Ajax vs Heerenveen - Another goal fest on the cards in Amsterdam

22 Jan 2019
mat-marshall
Mat Marshall 22 Jan 2019
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BTTS and over 4.5 goals are the selections in the Dutch Cup
Ajax heerenveen
Ajax Amsterdam and Heerenveen are expected to produce another high scoring match in the Dutch Cup (Getty Images)

Ajax vs Heerenveen Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips


Goals are predicted as Ajax Amsterdam host Heerenveen at the Johan Cruijff Arena in the Dutch Cup quarter-finals. Ajax and Heerenveen drew 4-4 on Sunday and I have identified value in the BTTS and over 4.5 goals markets.

AFC Ajax Amsterdam Form & Team News


Ajax had their 11 game winning run in the Eredivisie snapped after a thrilling 4-4 draw against Heerenveen on Sunday. Dusan Tadic had a chance to put the Amsterdam club 4-1 up on the stroke of half-time but couldn’t convert from the penalty spot.

Klaas-Jan Huntelaar came off the bench to put Ajax 4-3 up in the closing stages, but Heerenveen wouldn’t lie down and scored in added time to secure a remarkable draw. The result sees Ajax remain two points behind Eredivisie leaders PSV Eindhoven but the Amsterdam club have a great chance to win the KNVB Beker for the first time since 2009-10.

Manager Erik ten Hag is still without the injured Hassane Bandé, Carel Eiting and Nicolás Tagliafico here with Daley Sinkgraven to continue at left-back. Huntelaar is a chance to start but Brazilian winger David Neres is still behind Dusan Tadic and Hakim Ziyech in the pecking order.

Huntelaar ajax
Ajax striker Klaas Jan Huntelaar is in contention to start vs Heerenveen (Getty Images)

SC Heerenveen Form & Team News


Heerenveen continue to be inconsistent but the on certainty when they play is goals. The northern club have seen 83 goals scored in their 18 Eredivisie matches this season at 4.6 per game.

Their propensity for high scoring matches was on display once again on Sunday in a 4-4 draw against Ajax. Two goals to Sam Lammers and a Mitchell van Bergen strike tied the match at 3-3, and despite going down 4-3 the visitors equalised in added time as Kik Pierie converted Arbër Zeneli’s corner.

Manager Jan Olde Riekerink’s only absentee remains central midfielder Morten Thorsby. Yuki Kobayashi and Ben Rienstra are available after serving suspensions and could feature here in the middle of the park. 

Ajax vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head


Ajax dominate this fixture with a 39-10 advantage over Heerenveen and 10 draws. Ajax had defeated Heerenveen 10 times in a row before the 4-4 draw in the Eredivisie on Sunday. 

Ajax vs Heerenveen Match Up


Ajax were defensively suspect on Sunday and conceded more than one goal for the first time since the 3-0 defeat against PSV Eindhoven in September. They are scoring for fun however, three or more goals scored in 10 of their last 11 Eredivisie matches.

Heerenveen only know one way to play, attack at all costs which leaves them open and susceptible at the back. It makes for thrilling viewing and profit for punters backing over 3.5 and 4.5 total goals.

sam lammers
Dutch U21 and Heerenveen striker Sam Lammers was man of the match against Ajax on Sunday and will be a big threat once again (Getty Images)

Ajax vs Heerenveen Key Statistics


  • Ajax have seen over 4.5 goals in their last 5 home matches against Heerenveen (Eredivisie).
  • Ajax have scored 4 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Eredivisie).
  • Heerenveen have scored 1 goal or more in 10 of their last 11 matches at Ajax (Eredivisie).
  • Heerenveen have seen over 4.5 goals in 6 of their last 8 away matches (Eredivisie).

Verdict


Ajax should win this match but at 1.10 for the win we need to look at other options. Heerenveen have scored one goal or more in 10 of their last 11 matches at Ajax and scored four on Sunday which makes BTTS great value at 1.85.

Ajax have seen over 4.5 goals in their last five home matches against Heerenveen and have scored four or more goals in four of their last five Eredivisie matches. Over 4.5 total goals is also worth a shout at 2.30.

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Yes @ 1.85 at Bet365 - 5 Units
Value Bet: Over 4.5 Goals @ 2.30 at Bet365 - 3 Units
Correct Score Tip: Ajax Win 4-1 @ 13.00 at Bet365 - 1 Unit
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