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Southampton vs Brighton Predictions & Tips - Brighton to secure crucial win

  • Southampton vs Brighton predictions for Sunday’s Premier League fixture
  • The match is being played at St Mary’s (12:00pm GMT)
  • Southampton have lost 3 of their last 4 matches at home
  • I am tipping Brighton to win with under 2.5 goals scored
  • Team news, stats, predictions and preview
Brighton vs Sheffield Wednesday
Brighton can edge the South Coast derby (Getty Images)
Freetips staff 12 Mar 2021
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Southampton vs Brighton Predictions

Southampton continue to struggle this season and a heavy midweek defeat to Man City added to their poor run of form. Brighton have played well in recent weeks but late goals and VAR controversy has gone against them and led to three losses in a row.

I'm tipping them to get the rub of the green and a win in the South Coast derby.

  • Southampton have lost nine of their last 11 matches (Premier League). 
  • Southampton are winless in their last 4 home matches (Premier League).
  • Southampton have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 home matches (Premier League). 
  • Brighton have lost 1 of their last 4 away games (Premier League). 
  • Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches (Premier League). 


The two sides have played each other 74 times and Southampton hold a 36-20 advantage over Brighton, with 18 games drawn. 

In the reverse fixture at the Amex in December, Southampton won 2-1. Pascal Gross struck first for Brighton but a Jannik Vestergaard header and a late Danny Ings penalty gave the Saints all three points. 

Southampton Form

Southampton were comfortably beaten 5-2 by Man City in midweek. James Ward-Prowse scored from the penalty spot to cancel out Kevin De Bruyne’s early strike. 

But a brace from Riyad Mahrez and further goals from De Bruyne and Ilkay Gündogan earned City a deserve victory at the Etihad. 

The Saints were unable to build on their 2-0 victory over Sheffield United last weekend, which was their only win in 11 Premier League games.

Southampton have now lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games and taken just four points from the last 33 available. 

Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side ended a run of three straight defeats at St Mary’s last time out, securing a 1-1 draw against Chelsea. 

Southampton Injuries and Team News

Southampton forward Moussa Djenepo is likely to miss the Brighton match after coming off against Man City with a groin injury.

Danny Ings and Theo Walcott have been ruled out for Southampton until early April.

The Saints are also without Michael Obafemi, Oriol Romeu and William Smallbone. 

Ralph Hasenhüttl made six changes to his side for the 5-2 loss to Man City. He could make further changes to his line up this weekend as injury problems continue to mount for Southampton. 

Brighton Form

Brighton suffered a 2-1 loss to Leicester last weekend, their third defeat in as many games. 

Graham Potter’s side took the lead through Adam Lallana on 10 minutes but Kelechi Iheanacho equalised early in the second half. Leicester secured all three points after Daniel Amartey headed in from a corner in the 87th minute. 

Brighton are winless in their last six in all competitions and have gained just two points from their last 15 available in the Premier League. 

Away from home, Brighton have won two, drawn one and lost one of their last four. 

Brighton Injuries and Team News

Striker Aaron Connolly should return for Brighton this weekend after recovering from a lower back injury. 

Striker Florin Andone has been ruled out until early April, while Solly March, Adam Webster and Tariq Lamptey also remain out long-term.

Graham Potter switched from 4-2-3-1 to a flat 4-4-2 formation last weekend against Leicester. Adam Lallana started as a withdrawn striker alongside Neal Maupay, but the returning Aaron Connolly could be partnered with Maupay this weekend. 

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Both Southampton and Brighton have struggled recently in the Premier League. Brighton’s away form and recent performances should be enough to earn an away win over a Southampton team who look short on confidence.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals Total Goals @-163.93 at BetMGM - 4 Units
Value Bet: Brighton Win Full-Time Result @163.00 at Unibet - 1 Unit
Correct Score Tip: Brighton Win 1-0 Correct Score @700.00 at Borgata Sports - 1 Unit

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