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Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn - Werkself to begin Bundesliga campaign with dominant home win

Bayer Leverkusen have scored 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches
Bayer Leverkusen paderborn
Bayer Leverkusen can get their 2019/20 Bundesliga season off to a great start vs Paderborn (Getty Images)

Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips


Bayer Leverkusen can begin their Bundesliga campaign with a big win against newly promoted Paderborn at the BayArena. The hosts have a devastating attack that will create plenty of opportunities to score.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Form & Team News


Bayer Leverkusen came home strong last season to finish fourth in the Bundesliga and earn a spot in the UEFA Champions League. Peter Bosz’s side won five of their last six Bundesliga matches and recorded some crushing victories against Augsburg (4-1), Eintracht Frankfurt (6-1) and Hertha Berlin (5-1).

The Werkself got past Regionalliga club Alemannia Aachen 4-1 in the 1st round of the German Cup last week. An own goal was followed by goals to Kevin Volland, Leon Bailey and Kai Havertz.

New signings Kerem Demirbay and Nadiem Amiri both started against Aachen. Fellow new recruit Moussa Diaby came off the bench and assisted Havertz for the final goal. 

Demirbay and Amiri were signed to replace Julian Brandt and Dominik Kohr while Diaby offers another attacking threat. Former Ajax left-back and central midfielder Daley Sinkgraven will be looking to get his career back on track after two knee injuries but will have to wait for his chance.

Bayer Leverkusen have no injuries to contend with which is great news as they attempt to fight on three fronts. Bosz has plenty of options at his disposal and might be tempted to start Leon Bailey and revert to a back four.

Kai Havertz is an outstanding player, takes penalties and should be a popular pick in the first and anytime goalscorer markets. Leverkusen are priced at 1.33 to win which is fine for adding into accumulators, I will be utilising the handicap market where -1 is paying 1.78.

Kai Havertz
Bayer Leverkusen's 20-year-old attacking midfielder Kai Havertz is a superstar in the making (Getty Images)

SC Paderborn 07 Form & Team News


Paderborn have had a roller coaster through the divisions since their one season stay in the Bundesliga in the 2014-15 season. Three successive relegations should have seen the club go into the fourth division but they earned a reprieve due to 1860 Munich’s financial situation.

They then earned back-to-back promotions but are favourites to go straight back down to the 2 Bundesliga. Paderborn have the lowest budget in the Bundesliga which is highlighted by their lacklustre signings in the transfer window.

Marcel Hilßner, Cauly, Luca Kilian, Streli Mamba, Johannes Dörfler and Jan-Luca Rumpf were brought in on free transfers with €100,000 spent on midfielder Rifet Kapic. Their two top scorers last season were Philipp Klement and Bernard Tekpetey with both players sold which is a bad sign.

Paderborn beat Rödinghausen in a penalty shootout to advance in the German Cup. Uwe Hünemeier and Christopher Antwi-Adjei put them 2-0 up and Streli Mamba made it 3-1, but Rödinghausen scored twice in the final 11 minutes of regulation time.

Manager Steffen Baumgart is up against it then, and a trip to Leverkusen threatens to be a long and painful 90 minutes. Paderborn lost five of their last six away Bundesliga matches and failed to score in eight of their last 10 away matches in the division.

Goalkeeper Leopold Zingerle is injured with Jannik Huth set to continue in goal. It would be a huge upset if Paderborn beat Bayer Leverkusen, a result that can be backed at 12.00 while a draw is priced at 6.10.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn Head to Head


Bayer Leverkusen have won one of the two Bundesliga matches against Paderborn with one draw. Both matches were played in the 2014/15 season.

paderborn bundesliga
Paderborn supporters are in for a long and tough season (Getty Images)

Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn Match Up


Bayer Leverkusen were in scintillating form to finish the Bundesliga season and can start the new campaign with a bang. A feature of Leverkusen’s play under Peter Bosz is high possession statistics and they can monopolise possession against Paderborn.

Bayer Leverkusen’s squad is valued at €420 million with Paderborn’s squad valued at €24 million which highlights the gulf in class. Paderborn are likely to tire in the second half as they chase the ball for much of the game.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn Key Statistics


  • Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 of their last 7 competitive matches (all competitions).
  • Bayer Leverkusen have scored 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches in all competitions.
  • Bayer Leverkusen’s squad is valued at €420 million.
  • Paderborn’s squad is valued at €24 million.
  • Paderborn have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches (Bundesliga).
  • Paderborn have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 away matches (Bundesliga).

Verdict

Bayer Leverkusen should be far too strong at home. I am willing to back the hosts in the -1 and -2 handicap markets against a Paderborn side destined for relegation.

Best Bet: Bayer Leverkusen -1 @1.78 at bet365 - 7 Units
Value Bet: Bayer Leverkusen -2 @2.80 at bet365 - 2 Units
Correct Score Tip: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 @14.00 at bet365 - 1 Unit

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Post bet analysis

Bayer Leverkusen beat Paderborn 3-2, conceding sloppy goals and missing easy chances to make it 4-2 in the closing stages. This one hurts but we learn a lot about both teams moving forward. 
17 Aug 2019

Bayer Leverkusen v Paderborn

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