Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich - Draw predicted in Der Klassiker

Top of the table encounter in Germany tipped to be a close match
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Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich is a big game in Germany with a draw tipped (Getty Images)

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips


Borussia Dortmund are four points clear at the top of the Bundesliga as they host Bayern Munich at the Signal Iduna Park on Saturday. Der Klassiker is the biggest football match in Germany, and Dortmund are good enough to hold bitter rivals Bayern to a draw which is the likely result.

Borussia Dortmund


Dortmund had their 15 match unbeaten run snapped in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday after a 2-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid. It was a tough match on the road against seasoned campaigners and a good reality check for the Bundesliga leaders.

Dortmund had a lot of the ball with 68% but didn’t do much with it, unable to manage a single shot on target. Christian Pulisic and Jadon Sancho were poor in a match to forget for Lucien Favre’s side, who will be happy to return home where they have been fantastic this season. 

Borussia Dortmund have won seven of their last eight home matches and scored 30 goals in the process, scoring three or more goals on seven occasions. Favre’s approach will be interesting here, will he revert to three central midfielders or stick with the 4-2-3-1?

Raphael Guerreiro, Mario Götze and Jacob Bruun Larsen came off the bench in Madrid and are a chance to start. Two players who are indispensable are Marco Reus and Paco Alcácer, both players will line up and offer most of the attacking threat.

Dortmund's Marco Reus and Paco Alcacer will be dangerous against Bayern Munich (Getty Images)

FC Bayern Munich


The Bavarians rebounded from their mini crisis by winning five of their last six matches, which included a 1-1 home draw against Freiburg in their previous Bundesliga match. However, the level of opposition they have been facing has been poor highlighted by a 2-1 win at Rödinghausen in the German Cup.

Two wins in the Champions League have been recorded in that span, two against AEK Athens with the latest a 2-0 home win on Tuesday. Robert Lewandowski scored both goals and has now scored five goals in his last five matches.

Niklas Sule and James Rodriguez remained on the bench and are a chance to return against Dortmund, but few changes are expected in a game of this magnitude. Manager Niko Kovas has limited options with Corentin Tolisso, Thiago Alcántara, Kingsley Coman and Arjen Robben injured.

Head-to-Head


Bayern Munch have the edge against Borussia Dortmund with a 54-29 record and 29 draws in 112 matches. However, matches in Dortmund have been evenly split with very little separating these clubs.

FC Bayern have won the last three games against Dortmund including a 6-0 home win in the last encounter. Robert Lewandowski opened the scoring on his way to a hat-trick, James Rodriguez, Thomas Muller and Franck Ribery also on the score sheet.

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski scored a hat-trick in his last match against former club Borussia Dortmund (Getty Images)


Many of the players that featured for Dortmund in that match are no longer at the club, Sokratis Papastathopoulos, Gonzalo Castro, Andre Schurrle, Michy Batshuayi and Nuri Sahin. They also have a new coach on Lucien Favre that has done a great job so far.

Goals have been flowing freely in recent seasons with 27 goals scored in the previous six matches at an average of 4.5 goals a game.

Match Up


Borussia Dortmund know that a draw will be a good result here, which will preserve their four point lead over Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. They have shown an ability to keep things tight under Favre and wait for opportunities on the counter attack.

Nico Kovac needs to find the right balance in this match. Full-backs Joshua Kimmich and David Alaba love to attack, but it’s also a weakness Dortmund can exploit with their fast and tricky wingers.

Key Statistics


  • Borussia Dortmund have won 8 of their last 10 home matches (Bundesliga).
  • Borussia Dortmund have seen over 3.5 goals in their last 5 home games (Bundesliga).
  • Bayern Munich have seen both teams score in their last 3 matches (Bundesliga).
  • Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich have seen 27 goals scored in their last 6 matches at an average of 4.5 goals a game.

Verdict


Borussia Dortmund are in good form despite their 2-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid on Tuesday. At home they are very hard to beat and have the ability to score a lot of goals.

I think there is great value on the draw here. Dortmund will take a draw before the match kicks off, and although Bayern won’t admit it, a draw isn’t a bad result for the Bavarians either.

Best Bet: Draw @ 4.05 - 5 Units
Correct Score Tip: 2-2 @ 12.50 - 1 Unit
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Matthew Marshall 08 November 2018

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