Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich - German Super Cup thriller expected in first Der Klassiker of the season
Borussia Dortmund have seen over 3.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches against Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips
Borussia Dortmund have a chance to fire the first shot against German rivals Bayern Munich in the German Super Cup. These clubs have been involved in plenty of high scoring matches in recent years, I am predicting another attacking display to result in over 3.5 goals.
BVB Borussia Dortmund Form & Team News
Borussia Dortmund have made big moves in the transfer market this summer. Abdou Diallo may have departed to Paris Saint-Germain and Christian Pulisic joined Chelsea, but the Black and Yellows have strengthened by signing Mats Hummels, Nico Schulz, Julian Brandt, Thorgan Hazard and making Paco Alcácer’s loan deal from Barcelona permanent.
Lucien Favre’s side gave up a nine point lead in the Bundesliga last season to eventually finish two points behind Bayern Munich. Their pre-season has been a perfect four from four with wins against Seattle Sounders, Liverpool, Udinese and St. Gallen.
Contesting the German Super Cup at home is a big advantage for Borussia Dortmund, who won five of their final six Bundesliga matches at the Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund can be backed to beat Bayern at 3.30 with a draw paying 3.70.
I am going to sit on the fence in regards to picking a winner and siding with over 3.5 goals at 2.60. Borussia Dortmund have seen over 3.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions and over 4.5 goals in their last three friendly matches.
FC Bayern Munich Form & Team News
Bayern Munich secured their seventh straight Bundesliga title last season and have made moves to stay top of the pile in Germany. Mats Hummels, Rafinha, James Rodríguez, Franck Ribéry and Arjen Robben have all departed but the defence has been strengthened with the arrivals of Lucas Hernández and Benjamin Pavard.
Jann-Fiete Arp is a long term project but the Bavarians are likely to make more signings. Leroy Sané is rumoured to be making a move back to the Bundesliga from Manchester City to provide competition for wingers Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry.
FC Bayern have had a mixed pre-season, defeated by Arsenal but beating Real Madrid, AC Milan and Fenerbahçe. Manager Nico Kovac started with an experimental starting side against Tottenham in the Audi Cup final, bringing on the big guns who helped secure a 2-2 draw with youngsters Jann-Fiete Arp and Alphonso Davies with the goals.
Spurs won the penalty shootout but Bayern could be more concerned with Kingsley Coman. The French winger came off the bench in the 71st minute but lasted just five minutes before coming off with a knee injury.
Joshua Kimmich, Javi Martinez and Leon Goretzka were not in the squad against Tottenham but might have been rested by Kovac. We could see a central midfield consisting of Corentin Tolisso, Thiago Alcántara Renato Sanches against Dortmund.
Bayern Munich can be backed to win at 2.15 but I am steering away from the win market. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund have seen 37 goals scored in their last eight meetings at an average of 4.63 goals a game in all competitions, so I am backing over 3.5 goals and over 4.5 goals.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Head to Head
Bayern Munch have the edge against Borussia Dortmund with a 59-33 record and 30 draws in 112 matches. Dortmund beat Bayern 3-2 at home in the Bundesliga last season but the Bavarians got their revenge at the Allianz Arena with a 5-0.
Goals to Mats Hummels, Robert Lewandowski, Javi Martínez and Serge Gnabry had the hosts 4-0 up at half time and Lewandowski scored his second in the 89th minute to complete the rout.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Match Up
Borussia Dortmund have a number of new players we could see in the German Super Cup. The return of Mats Hummels could be key, the central defender left Dortmund for Bayern in 2016 but returns three years later with much to prove.
Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski is another former Dortmund player who is likely to be heavily involved. The Polish striker is a goal scoring machine and has scored seven goals in his last three matches against his former club.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Key Statistics
- Borussia Dortmund have seen over 3.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches in all competitions.
- Borussia Dortmund have seen over 4.5 goals in their last 3 matches (friendlies).
- Borussia Dortmund have seen over 3.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches against Bayern Munich (all competitions).
- Bayern Munich have seen over 3.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
- Bayern Munich & Borussia Dortmund have seen 37 goals scored in their last 8 meetings at an average of 4.63 goals a game (all competitions).
Verdict
Borussia Dortmund will be tough to beat at home but I am backing over 3.5 goals. I expect an exciting and attacking end to end match against Bayern Munich that could go either way.
Over 3.5 Goals
@8/5 - 5 Units
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Over 4.5 Goals
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Post bet analysis
Borussia Dortmund won 2-0 thanks to Paco Alcácer and Jadon Sancho but Bayern Munich certainly created enough chances to score a couple of goals. Unfortunately Dortmund goalkeeper Marwin Hitz had a blinder and they defended valiantly, I take the loss on the chin and move on...
