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Rio Ave vs Nacional - Value on the home win in Portugal

Under the radar Rio Ave have too much in attack
Rio Ave vs Nacional Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips
Rio Ave have a great record at home in the Primeira Liga (Getty Images)
Mat Marshall 17 Oct 2019
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Rio Ave vs Nacional Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips


Rio Ave are great value to beat Nacional and extend their winning run at home in the Primeira Liga to seven games. Their record at the Estádio do Rio Ave is impressive and I’m expecting a comfortable win against the worst defence in the competition.

Rio Ave FC


Rio Ave are flying high this season after one defeat in their first eight Primeira Liga matches an opening day defeat at Feirense. The Vila do Conde club sit in fourth position, just one point behind leaders FC Porto and are on a great run at home, including a 1-0 against Chaves on Saturday. 

Manager José Gomes’ side have won their last 6 home matches in the Primeira Liga and are undefeated in their last 14 at home, winning 12. Rio Ave have established themselves as a regular top half club having finished the last three seasons 6th, 7th and 5th last season saw them make the Europa League qualifiers.

Former Portugal, Real Madrid and Sporting CP player Fábio Coentrão moved back to his home town club in the summer and is having a strong season. Strikers Carlos Vinícius and Gelson Dala both have three league goals thus far alongside winger Wenderson Galeno and the trio will be a big danger here.

Galeno has scored five goals and produced two assists in his last nine appearances for Rio Ave. Georgi Makaridze, Nuno Santos and Joca haven’t featured all season and are still out injured.

Rio Ave's Brazilian forward Wenderson Galeno is on fire (Getty Images)

CD Nacional


Nacional are on a terrible run of form having not tasted victory in eight matches across all competitions. Back in Portugal’s top flight having spent a year in the second division, the Madeira club sit in the relegation places after winning once in their opening eight league matches.

Costinha’s side played a midweek fixture in the League Cup and were completely outplayed in a 5-0 defeat in Braga. Most of the first choice starting XI featured but it made little difference. Nacional are down on confidence and don't appear to have enough quality to avoid relegation.

Nacional have the worst defence in the Primeira Liga, conceding 16 goals in eight matches and scoring just six. Honduras striker Bryan Róchez has scored three of them but hasn’t found the back of the net since late August.

Head-to-Head


There is very little separating these clubs after 29 encounters but Rio Ave have won three of the last four including two wins in the Primeira Liga last season.

A 2-1 home win was secured with Roderick and Filip Krovinović scoring the goals. The match in Madeira was a 2-0 win to Rio Ave with Tarantini opening the scoring with Krovinović on the scoresheet once again.

Match Up


Rio Ave’s attacking trio of Carlos Vinícius, Gelson Dala and Wenderson Galeno are spreading the goals between them which means the have variety of threats. Fábio Coentrão is playing in an attacking role with his class adding to the danger.

Rio Ave's Fabio Coentrao played for Real Madrid and Portugal (Getty Images)

Nacional’s defence is all over the place, conceding goals at an alarming rate and it’s doubtful if Costinha can find a way to stop the leakage any time soon. 

Key Statistics


  • Rio Ave have won 12 of their last 14 home matches in the Primeira Liga.
  • Rio Ave have won their last 6 home matches (Primeira Liga).
  • Nacional have lost their last 3 matches in all competitions.
  • Nacional have lost 10 of their last 14 Primeira Liga matches.

Verdict


Rio Ave are flying under the radar and have three attackers who are all scoring goals. This should be an easy home win and the odds are sure to shorten before the Monday night kick-off. 

Nacional lost 5-0 at Braga on Tuesday and I don’t think they can turn this around in time. Another thumping is a real possibility.

Best Bet: Rio Ave Win @ 1.72 – 6 Units
Value Bet: Rio Ave -1 Handicap @ 2.80 – 3 Units 
Mega Bet: Rio Ave -2 Handicap @ 6.00 – 1 Unit
Boom Bet: Rio Ave -3 Handicap @ 15.00 – 1 Unit
Correct Score Tip: Rio Ave Win 4-0 @ 31.00 – 1 Unit
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