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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions & Tips - Under 2.5 Goals in Madrid Derby

  • Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions for Sunday’s La Liga match
  • The Madrid derby is being played at 3.15pm GMT at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
  • Atletico Madrid have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 matches against Real Madrid
  • I am backing under 2.5 goals and a draw in Madrid
  • Preview, predictions, stats & team news
Atletico Madrid Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid have drawn 6 of their last 9 matches against Real Madrid (Getty Images)
Mat Marshall 05 Mar 2021
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions


Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid are fighting for the La Liga title which should result in a cagey contest. I am backing under 2.5 goals and a draw in the Madrid derby.

  • Atletico have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches (all competitions).
  • Atletico are undefeated in 27 of their last 28 home matches (all competitions).
  • Atletico Madrid have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 matches against Real Madrid (all competitions).
  • Atletico Madrid have drawn 6 of their last 9 matches against Real Madrid (all competitions).
  • Real Madrid have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 matches (all competitions).
  • Real Madrid are undefeated in their last 9 away matches (all competitions).
  • Real Madrid are undefeated in 14 of their last 15 matches (La Liga).

Head to Head


Real Madrid have a 105-50 advantage against Atletico Madrid with 47 draws in 202 matches.

Atletico Madrid Form


Atletico Madrid sit at the top of La Liga, 5 points clear of Barcelona and Real Madrid with a game in hand. There have been some weaknesses seen in recent weeks with two wins in their last six matches.

Diego Simeone’s side lost 2-0 against Levante despite having 28-6 shots and 2.06-0.77 expected goals.

Los Colchoneros then lost 1-0 against Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League, failing to register a shot on target in Bucharest. 

Atletico Madrid’s last match was a 2-0 win at Villarreal, going ahead through an own goal before João Félix extended the lead. They were on the back foot for large spells with 37% possession and 0.84-1.94 expected goals.

Atletico Madrid Injuries & Team News


Right back Kieran Trippier is expected to return from suspension and take his place in the starting side.

Jose Gimenez is doubtful which could see Felipe continue in a back three.

Wingers Thomas Lemar and Yannick Carrasco have both been passed fit and are options for Simeone.

Real Madrid Form


Real Madrid have been battling an injury crisis but have still won five of their last six matches in all competitions.

Zinedine Zidane’s side won four straight matches to nil including 2-0 home wins against Getafe and Valencia, 1-0 at Real Valladolid and 1-0 at Atalanta in the UEFA Champions League.

Los Blancos played against 10 men for 73 minutes in Italy, Ferland Mendy scoring a late winner in their second straight match without Karim Benzema.

Real Madrid’s last match was a 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad. They had 20-6 shots but need an 89th minute equaliser from Vinícius Júnior to snatch a point.

Real Madrid Injuries & Team News


Real Madrid have a number of players injured including defenders Dani Carvajal and Sergio Ramos but Eder Militao is fit after an adductor injury.

Winger Eden Hazard and striker Mariano are on the treatment table.

Star striker Karim Benzema is a chance to feature despite not yet training with the first team.

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Verdict

Atletico Madrid will do what they do best and play for a draw against one of their title rivals. Real Madrid could continue to struggle for goals without Karim Benzema which means a under 2.5 goals is the best bet.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals Total Goals @-147.06 at BetMGM - 3 Units
Value Bet: Draw Full Time Result @230.00 at bet365 Sport NJ - 2 Units
Correct Score Tip: 1-1 Draw Correct Score @550.00 at Borgata Sports - 1 Unit

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