Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions & Tips – Los Blancos to Finish the Job in the Champions League

Vedran Ostojic

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Last updated: 11 Mar 2025

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Vedran Ostojic 11 Mar 2025

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Atletico Madrid are under pressure after losing the first tie 2-1
We are backing Los Blancos to upset their city rivals on Wednesday
Check our full match preview for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Expired

Atletico Madrid have lost their last 2 matches (Getty)

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview

Real Madrid have struggled at times in La Liga, but their Champions League form has been outstanding, with six consecutive wins. I will back them to exploit Atletico Madrid on the counter and win the second leg.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview
Stats
HTH
Atletico Madrid Form
Real Madrid Form
Team News
Predicted Starting Lineups

Stats

Atletico Madrid have lost their last 2 matches.
Real Madrid have won their last 6 matches (Champions League).

HTH

Real Madrid have a 43-15 advantage against Atletico Madrid with 24 draws in 82 matches.

Real Madrid have won last week’s 1st leg 2-1 at Santiago Bernabeu.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico Madrid were in strong form ahead of last week’s Champions League first leg against Real Madrid, earning back-to-back La Liga victories—3-0 against Valencia and 1-0 against Athletic Bilbao—while also securing a 4-4 draw in the Copa del Rey semifinal first leg against Barcelona.

Julian Alvarez’s stunning goal at the Santiago Bernabeu was not enough to prevent Diego Simeone’s side from falling to a 2-1 defeat. Atletico finished the match with 0.20-0.68 expected goals, 49% possession, and a 6-13 shot deficit.

Simeone’s decision to rest most of his starters in last weekend’s La Liga clash proved costly, as Atletico suffered a 2-1 loss despite taking the lead in the 75th minute through Alexander Sorloth.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid had a poor start to the month, suffering a 2-1 defeat to Real Betis in Sevilla despite Brahim Diaz putting them ahead after just ten minutes.

However, Los Blancos quickly bounced back, beating Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League Round of 16 first leg, with Rodrygo and Diaz finding the net.

Carlo Ancelotti opted against resting his key players in last weekend’s La Liga action, and Real Madrid claimed a 2-1 home win over Rayo Vallecano, with Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr on the scoresheet to keep their title hopes alive.

Team News

Diego Simeone has only one name on the injury list right now, Koke set to miss out the second leg.

As for the visitors, Dani Ceballos, Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao are out with long-term injuries.

Predicted Starting Lineups

Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan, Simeone, Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Lino, Alvarez, Griezmann

Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy, Tchouameni, Modric, Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr, Mbappe

Verdict

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid

Real Madrid allowed just 0.20 xG to Atletico Madrid in the first leg, securing their sixth consecutive Champions League win. Diego Simeone’s side lost 2-1 to Getafe last weekend, so I see value in backing Los Blancos to beat Atleti once again.

Real Madrid Win

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