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Italy vs Wales Predictions & Tips - Back Resolute Italy to Win against Wales at Euro 2020

  • Italy vs Wales predictions for Sunday’s European Championship match
  • The Group A fixture is being played at 5:00 pm BST at the Olympic Stadium
  • Italy have won to nil in their last 10 matches
  • I am tipping an Italy win to nil
  • Preview, predictions, stats & team news
Italy
Italy have won 23 of their last 26 matches (Getty Images)
Alex Waite 17 Jun 2021
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Italy vs Wales Predictions


Italy are scoring for fun and look rock solid in defence. Wales’ impressive start to Euro 2020 will come unstuck against a ruthless Italian side. 

I am backing Italy to win to nil.

  • Italy have won 23 of their last 26 matches (all competitions)
  • Italy have won to nil in their last 10 matches (all competitions)
  • Italy have won to nil in 4 of their last 5 matches against Wales (all competitions)

Head-to-Head


Italy have a 7-2 advantage against Wales in nine meetings. 

The Azzurri were 4-0 winners in the most recent meeting between the sides in a Euro 2004 qualifier. 

Italy Form 


Italy became the first team to qualify for the knockout stages with a comfortable 3-0 win against Switzerland. 

The Azzurri were on top for most of the match and created chances early on. Ciro Immobile headered over from close range and Giorgio Chiellini had a goal ruled out for handball. 

Roberto Mancini’s side continued to press and midfielder Manuel Locatelli broke the deadlock on 26 minutes. Locatelli scored another shortly after halftime before Immobile’s late long-range strike sealed the result. 

Italy were in complete control and recorded their tenth consecutive win. They have scored 31 goals without conceding during this run. 

Italy Injuries & Team News


Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alex Meret, Salvatore Sirigu 
Defenders: Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Emerson Palmieri, Alessandro Florenzi, Leonardo Spinazzola, Rafael Toloi
Midfielders: Nicolo Barella, Bryan Cristante, Jorginho, Manuel Locatelli, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Stefano Sensi, Marco Verratti
Attackers: Andrea Belotti, Domenico Berardi, Federico Bernardeschi, Federico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile, Lorenzo Insigne, Giacomo Raspadori

Centre back Giorgio Chiellini was subbed off with a hamstring injury against Switzerland. Francesco Acerbi is likely to replace the Italian captain. 

Italy could make several changes after qualifying for the knockout stages. Roberto Mancini will stick with 4-3-3 and may rest key players.

Midfielder Federico Chiesa could be in contention after an impressive substitute appearance against Switzerland. 

Wales Form


Wales took a huge step towards the knockout stages with a 2-0 win against Turkey in Group A. The Dragons have a three-point cushion in second place and a superior goal difference to third place Switzerland. 

Robert Page’s side set up to counter-attack against Turkey and had 36% possession. They created a host of chances throughout with 3.82 expected goals. 

Aaron Ramsey opened the scoring on 42 minutes before Gareth Bale missed a second-half penalty. Conor Roberts secured all three points with a last-minute goal. 

Page’s side have been hard to beat. Wales’ win over Turkey extended their unbeaten run to three matches, following draws with Switzerland (1-1) and Albania (0-0). 

Wales have struggled against the top European teams, losing 3-0 to England and France and 3-1 to Belgium in recent matches. 

Wales Injuries & Team News


Goalkeepers: Wayne Hennessey, Danny Ward, Adam Davies
Defenders: Connor Roberts, Neco Williams, Chris Gunter, Joe Rodon, Ethan Ampadu, Chris Mepham, Ben Cabango, Ben Davies, Rhys Norrington-Davies, Tom Lockyer
Midfielders: Joe Allen, Joe Morrell, Matthew Smith, Jonny Williams, Aaron Ramsey, Dylan Levitt, Rubin Colwill, Harry Wilson
Forwards: Daniel James, David Brooks, Tyler Roberts, Gareth Bale, Kieffer Moore

Robert Page could rest some of his preferred starting XI after his side saw little of the ball against Turkey and Switzerland. He is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation, with Kieffer Moore as the lone striker. 

Key defenders Chris Mepham and Ben Davies were booked against Turkey and risk suspension for the knockout stages. Ethan Ampadu and Neco Williams could come into the back four. 

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Verdict

Italy are well-balanced and should continue their impressive run of winning without conceding. The Azzurri will prove too strong for a spirited Welsh side, so I am tipping an Italy win to nil.

Best Bet: Italy Win Full Time Result @-200.00 at BetMGM - 4 Units
Value Bet: Italy Win to Nil Win to Nil @112.00 at Unibet - 3 Units

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