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Italy vs Germany Predictions & Betting Tips - Close Clash in the UEFA Nations League

Eddy Tora

Editor

Last updated: 20 Mar 2025

Eddy Tora 20 Mar 2025

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Italy have drawn 6 of their last 9 matches against Germany
I am backing a tight first leg in the Nations League

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Italy have drawn 6 of their last 9 matches against Germany (Getty)

Italy vs Germany Preview

Italy were hard to beat in the Nations League and have proved a tough opponent for Germany. I think the Germans will ultimately be satisfied with a draw in Milan.

Italy vs Germany Preview
Stats
HTH
Competitive Meetings
Italy Form
Italy Squad & Team News
Germany Form
Germany Squad & Team News

Stats

Italy are undefeated in 11 of their last 13 home matches (Nations League).
Italy have drawn 6 of their last 9 matches against Germany.
Germany are undefeated in their last 15 matches.
Germany have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches (Nations League).

HTH

Italy have a long and storied history against Germany, holding a 15-10 advantage alongside 12 draws.

Competitive Meetings

Competition	Date	Home	Score	Away
UEFA Nations League	14.06.2022	Germany	5:2	Italy
UEFA Nations League	04.06.2022	Italy	1:1	Germany
EURO 2016	02.07.2016	Germany	7:6 P	Italy
EURO 2012	28.06.2012	Germany	1:2	Italy
World Cup 2006	04.07.2006	Germany	0:2 AET	Italy
EURO 1996	19.06.1996	Italy	0:0	Germany
EURO 1988	10.06.1988	Germany	1:1	Italy
World Cup 1982	11.07.1982	Italy	3:1	Germany
World Cup 1978	14.06.1978	Germany	0:0	Italy
World Cup 1970	17.06.1970	Italy	4:3 AET	Germany
World Cup 1962	31.05.1962	Germany	0:0	Italy

Italy Form

Italy won their opening two games in the Nations League, both coming on the road. They came back to beat France 3-1 in Paris and defeated Israel 2-0 in Budapest.

Luciano Spalletti’s side beat Israel 4-1 in Udine, either side of a two games against Belgium. They had some help in overcoming a 2-0 deficit to draw 2-2 in Rome, followed by a 1-0 victory in Brussels where Sandro Tonali’s strike was the difference.

Qualification was assured before their final match, a 3-1 defeat to France. Andrea Cambiaso reduced the deficit before half-time but their substitutes failed to make a difference.

Italy Squad & Team News

Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Guglielmo Vicario, Alex Meret

Defenders: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Andrea Cambiaso, Alessandro Buongiorno, Destiny Udogie, Riccardo Calafiori, Federico Gatti, Raoul Bellanova, Pietro Comuzzo, Matteo Ruggeri

Midfielders: Nicolò Barella, Davide Frattesi, Sandro Tonali, Samuele Ricci, Nicolò Rovella, Cesare Casadei

Forwards: Giacomo Raspadori, Moise Kean, Matteo Politano, Mattia Zaccagni, Daniel Maldini, Lorenzo Lucca

Federico Dimarco and Manuel Locatelli miss out here with Mateo Retegui withdrawing due to muscular problems.

Moise Kean has scored 5 goals in 19 internationals.

Germany Form

Germany went unbeaten in the Nations League, winning all three home games without conceding a goal. They beat Hungary 5-0, Netherlands 1-0 and Bosnia-Herzegovina 7-0.

Die Mannschaft didn’t keep a clean sheet on the road, starting with a 2-2 draw in the Netherlands. Deniz Undav scored both goals in a 2-1 win at Bosnia & Herzegovina.

ulian Nagelsmann’s side ended the campaign with a 1-1 draw in Hungary. Felix Nmecha scored in the closing stages before conceding a penalty in the 98th minute.

Germany Squad & Team News

Goalkeepers: Oliver Baumann, Alexander Nübel, Stefan Ortega

Defenders: Antonio Rüdiger, Robin Koch, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich, Nico Schlotterbeck, Yann Aurel Bisseck, Maximilian Mittelstädt, David Raum

Midfielders: Pascal Gross, Leon Goretzka, Jamal Musiala, Nadiem Amiri, Jamie Leweling, Angelo Stiller, Leroy Sané, Karim Adeyemi, Robert Andrich

Forwards: Jonathan Burkardt, Tim Kleindienst, Deniz Undav

Robin Gosens and Julian Brandt miss out with Marc-André ter Stegen, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz injured.

Deniz Undav has scored 3 goals in 5 internationals.

Verdict

Italy v Germany

Italy and Germany have similar strength in their squads and I think that will play out on the pitch. I am backing a draw in the first leg in Milan.

Draw

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@11/5 - 3 Units

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1-1 Draw

Correct Score

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