Best Bet – Incentivise
Wet ground, dry ground, a mile, 2400m, this bloke has it all and he has certainly convinced me that he is one of Australia’s premier horses after making it back-to-back WFA Group One wins in the Turnbull Stakes last start.
What was most impressive about last start was that Incentivise went hard early, and set the race up for the backmarkers, but when they challenged, he found something within to kick and win which very few horses can do.
This has been his target race for the spring en-route to the Melbourne Cup and without any internationals in the event, he just picks himself as the horse to beat.
Next Best Bet – Young Werther
It is hard to see him turning the tables on Incentivise (although there is a case with the wide draw) after he had every chance to get past him in the Turnbull, but frankly, nothing was getting past him there and I don’t see anything getting past him here.
The boxes Young Werther ticks is that he will love a genuine tempo that we are expecting and he is a proper stayer with a touch of brilliance, so the 2400m is right up his alley.
The wet track is ideal having placed on two soft tracks previously, he gets in light with 52kg and looks to me as the one who can upset Incentivise if he was to have an off day.
Value Bet – The Chosen One
He has been going a lot better this prep than he was this time last year when he ran less than a length third to Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck (an arguably stronger edition of the race) last year.
That was a deteriorating soft six track and we know this track is likely to be wetter this year is the Bureau is correct, so he is going to handle the ground.
The Chosen One has finished fourth in a Melbourne Cup, so if any horses are found wanting on this wet track, this is the one that will come charging at them late.