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Victoria Derby Tips - El Castello to make it a five-peat in Flemington Group 1

Alex Marsh

Editor

Last updated: 01 Nov 2024

Alex Marsh 01 Nov 2024

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The Victoria Derby is the main three-year-old race of the Melbourne Cup Carnival
El Castello leads as the favorite after a strong winning streak
Goldrush Guru and China Sea are strong contenders with competitive odds

Expired

El Castello is four-from-four this season. (Getty)

The Victoria Derby kicks off the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Saturday, November 2, with the best three-year-old stayers bidding for glory at Flemington.

This $2 million major draws those local stayers who have endured a long Spring Carnival, often coming through races such as the Caulfield Classic, Moonee Valley Vase, Geelong Classic and Spring Champion Stakes.

El Castello is favourite to win the 2024 Victorian Derby, but will he win? Here's our verdict and some value bets in the market.

2024 Victoria Derby Tips

Best Bet - El Castello

He's been in hot form this season, with the son of Castelvecchio winning all four spring starts and that includes a last start Group 1 triumph in the Spring Champion Stakes.

Ace High (2017) was the last horse to complete the Spring Champion Stakes/Victoria Derby double, although it's worth noting that the Spring Champion Stakes was contested earlier seven years ago.

Backing up with interstate travel can be a tough ask, although he hasn't had gut busters via his last three appearances and a tough run last week may have ruled him out.

Anthony Cummings prepared Fiveandahalfstar to win the 2012 Victoria Derby and El Castello is from the same family, with his dam being a half-sister to the dual Group 1 winner.

Next Best Bet - Goldrush Guru

Another colt from a famous family is Goldrush Guru, who is closely related to Gamblin' Guru, Gallant Guru and Gold Guru, with the latter being an Australian Derby winner.

There's plenty of question marks regarding the quality of this field, especially from the Victorian horses and that's supported by El Castello being an outright fav from Sydney.

Goldrush Guru has class and he relished the rise in distance on October 19 when saluting at Listed level and the runner-up from that event was Group 2 placed last Saturday.

American Pharoah sired last year's Victoria Derby winner (Riff Rocket) and while he doesn't appear to have that level of quality, the South Australian looks as though he'll stay.

Value Bet - China Sea

Trainer John Sargent needs to be respected in three-year-old staying races and this looks the clear target for China Sea, who will contest the Victoria Derby fourth-up.

A debut winner who was then spelled after failing in the JJ Atkins, the son of Fastnet Rock was good late on return behind Lady Shenandoah, who then bolted in with the Flight Stakes.

The second-up run when finding trouble was inconclusive, but he bounced off that with a narrow last start defeat in the Caulfield Classic, which is a traditional lead-up.

With the October 19 outing being his time first racing anti-clockwise, China Sea should only benefit from that 2000m hit-out and the booking of Mark Zahra is also a plus.

2024 Victoria Derby Field

No.	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Barrier	Weight
1	El Castello	Anthony Cummings	Joshua Parr	18	57kg
2	Red Aces	Nick Ryan	Jamie Mott	4	57kg
3	Keeneland (NZ)	Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	Hugh Bowman	11	57kg
4	Goldrush Guru	Andrew Gluyas	Jamie Kah	15	57kg
5	Saint Emilion	Ciaron Maher	Tim Clark	6	57kg
6	Kingofwallstreet	Matt Cumani	Michael Dee	10	57kg
7	Politely Dun	Danny O'Brien	Damian Lane	5	57kg
8	King Of Thunder (NZ)	John O'Shea & Tom Charlton	James McDonald	1	57kg
9	Tenbury Wells	Brad Widdup	Blake Shinn	14	57kg
10	Peru	Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson	Declan Bates	2	57kg
11	China Sea	John Sargent	Mark Zahra	7	57kg
12	Hot Too Go	Danny O'Brien	Jordan Childs	13	57kg
13	Scary (NZ)	Emma-Lee & David Browne	Luke Nolen	8	57kg
14	Oxford Blue	Julius Sandhu	Ethan Brown	16	57kg
15	West Indies (NZ)	Mark Walker	Craig Newitt	17	57kg
16	Autumnheat	Matt Cumani	Eoin Walsh	12	57kg
17e	War Ribbon	David Payne	John Allen	3	57kg
18e	Ceccheti	Matt Cumani	Daniel Stackhouse	9	57kg

Verdict

Victoria Derby

Our tips for the 2024 Victoria Derby are:

El Castello

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China Sea

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