Victoria Derby Tips & Betting Predictions


DateSaturday November 3, 2018
TrackFlemington
Distance2500m
ClassGroup 1
Race TypeSet weights
Prize Money$2 million
Age3YO

Kicking off the Melbourne Cup Carnival in style, the Victoria Derby is one of the highlight Group 1 races of the spring and Derby Day is the best betting card of all four meetings at Flemington.

Boasting a maximum field of the best staying three-year-olds in Australia, the Derby has become a stallion-making race and the form out of the Derby has stacked up on the world stage.

It’s a great way to start the carnival and punters consider Derby Day as the best betting day of the year.

Victoria Derby betting card 2018


Held on the first Saturday of the carnival, the Victoria Derby kicks off the carnival in great fashion.

Race No.
Race Name
1Carbine Club Stakes
2Wakeful Stakes
3Skip Sprint
4Lexus Stakes
5Coolmore Stud Stakes
6Empire Rose Stakes
7Victoria Derby
8Kennedy Mile
9TAB Stakes

2018 Victoria Derby betting selections & tips



2018 Victoria Derby Race Details


Date: Saturday November 3, 2018
Time: 4:35pm AEST
Racecourse: Flemington
Distance: 2500m
Status: Group 1
Prize Money: $1 million

Victoria Derby history


The Victoria Derby is one of the oldest thoroughbred races in Australia, having first run in 1855. It was held over 2400m until 1972 when it was changed to 2500m due to the growing concerns about the short run into the first corner.

The first three editions were won by fillies but there hasn’t been a filly win the Derby since 1923 when Frances Tressady scored. 

History was also created when Clare Lindop became the first female jockey to ride and win the Derby. Gai Waterhouse became the first female to train a winner when Nothin’ Leica Dane scored in 1995.

Derby Day has always had a great impact on Australian racing and it’s a huge social occasion for the general public. The crowd numbers have topped 115,000 for the last four years running and it continues to attract the biggest crowds, bigger than Melbourne Cup Day on the following Tuesday.

Past winners of the Victoria Derby have gone on to have successful stud careers and also notable success overseas. Efficient scored in 2006 before winning the Melbourne Cup and names such as Lion Tamer, Monaco Consul and Sangster have added an international flair to the great race.

Going further back in history, the likes of Phar Lap, Dulcify and Tulloch were winners of the Derby. All three runners would late be immortalised in the Australian Racing Hall of Fame and winning the Derby helped pave the way to their stunning careers.

There are some derbies around the world where middle-distance types can see out the distance but Victorian Derby winners are true stayers and typically the fittest horse wins.

Victoria Derby betting guide


The Victoria Derby is always won by a future champion but punters have had a hard time identifying the best horse in recent history.

Over the last 10 years, only one favourite has won and six of those 10 favourites have failed to finish in the first three. That one favourite to win was Tarzino in 2015 when winning at 15/8 and there have been some big upsets since.

Fiveandahalfstar won at 40.00 in 2012, which followed two consecutive winners that paid 13.00. Both were New Zealand-trained runners which are always tough to beat in the Victoria Derby.

Recent NZ-trained winners include Sangster, Lion Tamer, Monaco Consul and Efficient, with the first three winning in consecutive years.

Punters often get lulled into backing the best middle-distance thoroughbreds but lightning speed isn’t needed to win the Victoria Derby and backing the “plodding” stayers can reap rewards. Seeing out the 2500m isn’t easy on the three-year-old stayers and identifying which runners will see it out is key.

Look for previous form over long distances, which could include the New Zealand Derby in March.

Victoria Derby form guide


The traditional lead-up race to the Victoria Derby is the AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley, which has spawned many winners. Efficient, Tarzino and a host of other AAMI Vase runners have gone on to win the Victoria Derby.

Another good lead-up is the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney, which was captured by Ace High before he won in 2017. Prized Icon (2016) and Tarzino (2015) also completed the double, making it three-straight wins for the runners with Sydney form.

Following the Derby, many runners compete in the Australian Cup, Ranvet Stakes, The BMW and the following Caulfield Cup.

The form can translate over to the Melbourne Cup as well. Efficient scored a Derby win in 2006 before winning the Melbourne Cup in 2007.

Recent Victoria Derby winners


Year
Race Winner
2017Ace High
2016Prized Icon
2015Tarzino
2014Preferment
2013Polanski
2012Fiveandahalfstar
2011Sangster
2010Lion Tamer
2009Monaco Consul
2008Rebel Raider
2007Kibbutz
2006Efficient
2005Benicio
2004Plastered
2003Elvstroem
2002Helenus
2001Amalfi
2000Hit The Roof
1999Blackfriars
1998Arena
1997Second Coming
1996Portland Player
1995Nothin’ Leica Dane
1994Blevic
1993Mohagany
1992Redding
1991Star of the Realm
1990Fire Oak
1989Stylish Century
1988Kings High