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2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tips – 11/1 shot could swoop in and spoil Enable’s party at Longchamp

  • We’ve taken a look through the field set to contest the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
  • Europe’s most prestigious flat race takes place at Longchamp on Sunday
  • Enable is the hot-favourite as she goes for a record-breaking third Arc
  • Stradivarius, Sottsass and In Swoop will also run
  • We take a look through the field in full before settling on our best bet
Arc longchamp
The runners are sent on their way in the 2019 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. (Getty)

Sunday marks one of the biggest days in the world of horse racing, as many of the sport’s finest middle-distance horses go toe-to-toe in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

All-time greats like Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars and Treve all rubber-stamped their star quality by winning the Arc, and a talented field will look to follow in their footsteps at Paris-Longchamp on Sunday afternoon.

2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Odds


Name
Best Odds
Top Bookie
Enable6/5William Hill
Stradivarius13/2Unibet
Sottsass8/1William Hill
In Swoop11/1William Hill
Serpentine12/1bet365
Raabihah12/1Unibet
Bar16/1

*Odds correct as of 1/10/20*

2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Favourite


Enable2020 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe FavouriteGET 6/5 HERE
New customers only. 21+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply.William Hill is operated by WHG (International) Limited, a company registered in Gibraltar. William Hill is licensed and regulated by the UK Gambling Commission (Number: 000-039225 R-319373-009) for customers in Great Britain, and licensed by the Gibraltar Government and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner (RGL no. 034 & 042) for all other customers.

Having fallen short on her first attempt to make history 12 months ago, Enable will again bid to become the first three-time winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. On her reappearance, John Gosden’s star suffered her first defeat on British soil since her debut, losing out to Ghaiyyath in the Coral-Eclipse. Enable bounced back with a simple victory over just two rivals in the King George, before enjoying a successful pipe-opener in the September Stakes.

Enable had trailed Love in the betting prior to the ground turning very soft at Longchamp. Gosden’s filly won her first Arc on testing ground in 2017, so you can see why punters have decided to side with Frankie Dettori’s mount. I, however, have my reservations.

When Enable won that Arc on very soft ground, she went into the race on the back of one of the best three-year-old campaigns we’ve ever seen, and she was gaining weight from her elders. Everything we’ve seen from Frankie’s mount this season suggests she’s not as good as she once was, and I don’t think she really wants the ground to be testing either.

I’d love to see Enable win and make history. Whatever happens on Sunday, she’ll go down as one of the greatest mares the sport has ever produced. I just don’t think she offers any real value at 6/5.

enable arc
Waldgeist (right) flies home to beat Enable (left), Sotsass (green) and Japan (Purple) in the 2019 Arc. (Getty)

2020 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Form


Stradivarius2020 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Market MoverGET 13/2 HERE
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We now face the task of finding a runner to take Enable on with. Love would have been the obvious choice, as she’s been the stand-out horse of the season so far. However, an alarming drift in her odds after the going was revealed – and the fact that Aidan O’Brien has supplemented another of his runners, Serpentine into the race – resulted in her withdrawal. A terrible blow to this great race.

Stradivarius has been pointed at the Arc, and punters have sided with his confirmed stamina since the rain arrived at Longchamp. On his two starts over a-mile-and-a-half this season, though, he hasn’t been able to produce the turn of foot that’s served him so well over staying trips. I can't see John Gosden’s star having the pace to mount a serious challenge.

Surprise Derby winner, Serpentine was thrown into the mix this week. Following his Epsom win, O’Brien’s colt met with a setback, and wasn’t seen again until the Grand Prix de Paris. Although he made encouraging late progress to finish fourth that day and will come on for the run, I don't think the ground will suit him either.

Mogul realised his potential with a fine victory that day. Following that win, O'Brien's colt was pushed into around 12/1 for the Arc. His odds have drifted in recent days though, and you can see why, as all his best performances have come on decent ground. 

His half-brother, Japan was my selection 12 months ago, when he finished fourth as a three-year-old. Masaaki Matsushima then purchased a stake in Japan, in hope that he could win the Arc this season. Sadly, Aidan O’Brien’s colt has endured a really poor campaign, and a return to the Arc won't bring about an upturn in form.

Raabihah sat at a single-figure price in the Arc betting, until her recent defeat to Tarnawa in the Prix Vermeille. Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly wasn’t at her best that day, on what was her first start over this trip. She’s never encountered ground this soft before either, and I doubt whether this daughter of Sea The Stars will relish a hard-slog in testing conditions.

Persian King has also shown a clear liking for good ground, and has never stepped foot beyond ten furlongs. Deidre hasn’t won for seven starts. Way To Paris failed to impress in a winnable Prix Foy. Sovereign will likely be used as a pacemaker, and both Chachnak and Royal Julius are clearly out of their depth.

2020 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tips


In Swoop E/W2020 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe TipsGET 11/1 HERE
New customers only. 21+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply.William Hill is operated by WHG (International) Limited, a company registered in Gibraltar. William Hill is licensed and regulated by the UK Gambling Commission (Number: 000-039225 R-319373-009) for customers in Great Britain, and licensed by the Gibraltar Government and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner (RGL no. 034 & 042) for all other customers.

Contrary to popular belief, the ground isn’t always soft for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. On the last ten occasions when the ground has been soft or worse, French horses have won five times. Seven victories have gone the way of three-year-olds, and all of the ten winners had either won previously on testing ground, or were having their first start on that going description.

I’m left with two names on my shortlist. The first being Sottsass, who stayed on well to finish third here last year. Jean-Claude Rouget’s charge hasn’t been as prolific during his four-year-old campaign, but Sottsass has maintained a high level of form, and this will be his first start over 12 furlongs since that third-place finish 12 months ago.

At 8/1, Sottsass looks a solid each-way punt. That being said, I fancy taking a risk on IN SWOOP at a slightly bigger price.

I call this a risk, as many will try to pick holes in his form and some may think In Swoop is too inexperienced to win an Arc. Francois-Henri Graffard’s charge won the Germany Derby on just his third career start, before finishing second behind Mogul in the Grand Prix de Paris last time out.

What I like about In Swoop is how he’s responded to pressure on all four of his starts. In the German Derby - which you can watch in the video above - Ronan Thomas’ mount was one of the first to come off the bridle. Once In Swoop got into his stride, he sliced through the 19-strong field, winning a shade cosily in the end. Having the ability to quicken up and pick a path through a large field will stand him in excellent stead on Sunday.

Again, in the Grand Prix de Paris, Thomas was hard at work on his mount a long way from home. Although Mogul had already opened up an unassailable lead by the two-furlong pole, In Swoop fair flew home once he found open air, and was doing his best work as he crossed the line second.

In Swoop has strengthened considerably as the season has played out. He’s clearly at his best over 12 furlongs, and won nicely on soft ground when making a winning debut at Lyon Parilly. His sire, Alderflug is from the same family as Galileo and Sea The Stars, and In Swoop’s damn, Ito won the Preiss von Bayern during her three-year-old campaign.
US

Verdict

There are many horses in this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with more star appeal than IN SWOOP.  I just feel he’s a three-year-old who’s still on the upgrade, and he should be suited by the conditions of Sunday’s race. 11/1 looks an excellent each-way price.

2020 Prix de l'Arc De Triomphe Tips: In Swoop Each-Way @+1100 at William Hill - 15 Units

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16 March 2021