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2022 Northumberland Plate Tips - Odds, trends and two against the field

  • Tips, odds and trends for the 2022 Northumberland Plate
  • This historic handicap will be run at Newcastle on Saturday 25th June
  • Rajinsky is our first selection at 5/1
  • Alright Sunshine was our ante-post tip at 25/1
nicholas T northumberland
Ben Robinson on Nicholas T, (red/white cap, blue top) on their way to winning the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle Racecourse. (Getty)
jon-vine
Jon Vine 23 Jun 2022
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The most valuable race staged on an artificial track in Britain will take place at Newcastle on Saturday, as 20 top stayers battle it out in the Northumberland Plate. This historic two-mile handicap was first staged in 1833, and was switched from turf when Newcastle opened their all-weather track in 1985. 

We've taken a look through the ante-post betting for this year's Northumberland Plate and listed some key recurring trends, before picking out our best ITV Racing betting tips.

2022 Northumberland Plate Odds


Name
Odds
Rajinsky5/1
Trueshan7/1
Valley Forge7/1
Onesmoothoperator10/1
Bandinelli12/1
Soapy Stevens12/1
Rainbow Dreamer12/1
Bar16/1

2022 Northumberland Plate Trends


  • 14 of the last 15 winners had either won around Newcastle or were having their first start at the track
  • 14 of the last 15 winners had at least one previous start that season
  • 14 of the last 15 winners either won or placed last time out
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were either 4, 5 or 6
  • 11 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 14/1 or less
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had won at Class 2 level or above
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had won over 2m or further (3 of the other 4 were having their first start over 2m)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 95 or higher

Although this hasn't always been the case, catching a wide draw has proven vital in recent years. Four of the last five winners were drawn in stall 11 or higher. 80% of the top four placers during that time period came from a double-figure stall.

The last two winners both came out of stall 17. The horse drawn in 17 finished third in 2018, second in 2017 and fourth in 2016, so that gate could be considered as somewhat of a lucky omen - if you believe in that sort of thing.

Trueshan will, again, limber up for the Goodwood Cup with an outing in the Northumberland Plate. Alan King's stable star could only finish sixth under 9-13 last season. Trueshan will have to carry 10-8 this year so, while it's impossible to rule Hollie Doyle's mount out, the top-weight clearly has his work cut out.

2022 Northumberland Plate Tip 1 - Rajinsky


Rajinsky2022 Northumberland Plate Tip 1GET 5/1 HERE
18+ only. Gamble responsibly. Ts and Cs apply

None of the current 20 entrants tick off every trend box. The one who comes closest is RAJINSKY, who's yet to win around Newcastle, but has finished third and seventh in the last two renewals of the Northumberland Plate.

On his first start for Hugo Palmer, Rajinsky finished powerfully to beat future Royal Ascot winner, Get Shirty and make it two wins from two around Ripon. Top conditional jockey, Harry Davies then gave his mount an excellent ride in the Chester Cup, where Rajinsky kept up with the pace throughout from stall one and was only beaten a length-and-a-half back in third.

Thanks to the presence of Trueshan and Davies' five-pound claim, Rajinsky will only carry 8-12 into Saturday's main event. Palmer's stayer has landed a lovely draw out in stall 16 and it's hard to make a case against the market leader.

2022 Northumberland Plate Tip 2 - Alright Sunshine


Alright Sunshine E/W2022 Northumberland Plate TipsGET 25/1 HERE
18+ only. Gamble responsibly. Ts and Cs apply

Like Rajinsky, ALRIGHT SUNSHINE was beaten in this race 12 months ago. Keith Dalgleish's charge was travelling as well as anyone turning for home and Billy Garrity was faced with a wall of horses to try and get through. Alright Sunshine had to be switched a couple of times before he found open-air and was bumped again as he shifted into top gear at the furlong pole, eventually crossing the line four lengths behind Nicholas T in tenth.

It's been over a year since Alright Sunshine last tasted victory. He does, however, return to the Northumberland Plate on the back of three top-quality placed efforts.

Garrity's mount stayed on from the rear to place third behind the impressive Enemy and a future winner, Dark Jedi in the Queen's Cup at Musselburgh. Alright Sunshine was then only beaten a length-and-a-half in the Hell Nook at Haydock, where Dalgleish's seven-year-old was giving ten pounds to the winner, Valley Forge and six pounds to the runner-up, Golden Flame.

Alright Sunshine was last seen staying on from off the pace to finish a two-and-a-half-length fourth in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot. Garrity's mount may have finished even closer to Get Shirty than he did, had Alright Sunshine not run straight into the back of the fading Stowell - who hit the front too early under Frankie Dettori and had nothing left in the tank at the furlong pole.

If Garritty's mount gets out of stall seven well and finds a clear path to the post, then Alright Sunshine has proven in recent starts that he's handicapped well enough to win a race of this stature.
GB

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