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Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Predictions & Tips - Mahomes key to AFC Conference decider

  • Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs predictions for Sunday's game
  • The AFC Conference Championship is being played at Arrowhead Stadium (11.40pm GMT).
  • Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes' fitness will be key to the outcome.
  • Back the Bills to be restricted to under 24 points, which has happened in the last 5 head to heads.
  • Match preview, predictions and latest team news.
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is an injury doubt (Getty Images)
Gary Emmerson 21 Jan 2021
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Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

The fitness of Patrick Mahomes throws some real dilemmas at us from a punting point of view. If he lines up we're backing the Chiefs to reign supreme, but without him the Bills could be value as the underdogs.

With so much hinging on the Chiefs quarterback's availability, we're focusing instead on the Bills. Back Kansas City to limit Josh Allen's yards, as they did in Week 6.

  • Kansas City Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions.
  • Kansas City Chiefs finished the season 14-2 to win the AFC West.
  • Kansas City Chiefs have won 4 of the last 5 matches against the Buffalo Bills.
  • Buffalo Bills finished the season 13-3 as AFC West winners.
  • Buffalo Bills have won their last 8 matches.
  • Buffalo Bills are playing in the AFC Championship game for the first time since 1993.

Head to Head

These two sides have met on only five occasions since 2013 and four of them have gone the way of Kansas City Chiefs.

In their Week 6 meeting this season, the Chiefs held Josh Allen to just 122 passing yards from 27 attempts to win 26-17 at the Bills.

Kansas City Chiefs Form

The reigning Super Bowl champions finished the season 14-2 to win the AFC West and are top seeds in the AFC Conference.

The Chiefs went 10 games unbeaten before ending the regular season by losing 38-21 against the Chargers.

They put the disappointment of that defeat firmly behind them in last week's Divisional Round as they claimed a 22-17 victory over a determined Cleveland Browns side.

The Chiefs lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to concussion in the third quarter of that game, but ground out the victory without him. They now host the AFC decider for the third year running.

Kansas City Chiefs Team News

All eyes will be on quarterback and last year's Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a neck injury and potential concussion in last week's win.

Star running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire missed the Divisional Round victory over the Cleveland Browns with ankle and hip injuries, but he is expected to return for the Chiefs.

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins (calf), cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland (shoulder) and Rashad Fenton (foot) and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. (ankle) are doubts. 

Buffalo Bills Form

The Buffalo Bills were crowned AFC West winners during a six-game winning run to end the regular season with a 13-3 record.

They made that seven wins in a row with a 27-24 victory at home to Indianapolis Colts on Wildcard Weekend. It was their first playoff win in 25 years.

Buffalo were brilliant in defence in last week's Divisional Round as they contained Baltimore Ravens to win 17-3. The victory helped match the Bills' longest winning streak since 1990.

The Bills are now looking to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993, but can they upset the reigning champs?

Buffalo Bills Team News

Wide receiver Cole Beasley has been cleared of a knee problem. Defensive end Darryl Johnson (knee) and Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) are also fit. 

The Bills are sweating on a number of other injury problems. Defensive tackle Vernon Butler (quad), wide receivers Gabriel Davis (ankle) Stefon Diggs (oblique) and defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson (ankle) all have a cloud over them.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs FAQs

What is the Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs best bet?

With the fitness of Patrick Mahomes unclear, we're focusing on the Bills. Back Josh Allen's passing yards to be under 308.5 and for Buffalo to be kept to under 24 points.

Where can I watch the Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs live stream?

Our live streaming calendar shows you where to watch the Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs live stream.



This game is all about Patrick Mahomes availability. If he played, the Chiefs should be on the way to the Super Bowl. If he is absent, the Bills have a real shot.

With so-many question marks, I'm opting for the Chiefs to limit Bills quarterback Josh Allen's passing yards once again. The Bills haven't scored more than 22 against the Chiefs in the last five head to heads, so take under 24 as the value bet.

Best Bet: Under 308.5 Josh Allen Passing Yards @-120.48 at BetMGM - 3 Units
Value Bet: Bills Under 24 Points Buffalo Bills Total Points @105.00 at bet365 Sport NJ - 2 Units

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