Australian Federal Election Betting Tips & Predictions - 3 value odds bets

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: 11 Apr 2025

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Andrew Hendrie 11 Apr 2025

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Guide to value bets in the 2025 Australian Federal Election
Three value tips surrounding Labor for key seats
Labor can win key seats in Gilmore, Chisholm & Dickson

Australian Prime Minsister Anthony Albanese and Labor candidate Ali France (Photo by Getty Images)

The 2025 Australian Federal Election takes place on May 3 and we've got three value predictions at value odds.

While the focus is on the Election betting odds for whether it will be Labor or Liberal victory, there are longer odds options offering much better value.

We've picked out three wider markets in which there are bigger odds to back potential upsets for seats around Australia.

Gilmore (NSW)

Betting Tip: Fiona Phillips (Labor) @ $2.75

Phillips has held Gilmore since 2019, giving her a track record of delivering local projects and initiatives. Her incumbency provides name recognition and a base of loyal voters.

She secured the top spot in the ballot draw, which historically benefits candidates by increasing their visibility among undecided voters.

In 2022, Phillips overcame a significant first-preference vote deficit (6,700 fewer votes than Andrew Constance) through strong preference flows from Greens and other minor parties.

Similar dynamics could play out in 2025, especially with the presence of independent Kate Dezarnaulds and Greens candidate Debbie Killian.

Labor’s federal budget announcements, including cost-of-living measures and infrastructure spending, may bolster Phillips’ appeal in Gilmore, where these issues are critical.

Chisholm (VIC)

Betting Tip: Mary Doyle (Labor) @ $3.10

As the sitting MP for Chisholm, Doyle has had time to establish herself locally and build a personal vote. Incumbency often provides an edge, especially if the MP has been visible and active in addressing local issues.

First-term MPs often benefit from a "sophomore swing," as voters who may have been hesitant initially are more inclined to support a candidate they now recognise and trust. This could help offset any broader anti-Labor swing in Victoria.

Reports indicate that Labor has been campaigning aggressively in key Victorian seats, including Chisholm, with door-knocking efforts and high-profile visits from senior Labor figures. This contrasts with the Liberal campaign, which has been described as less visible.

While the redistribution reduced Labor's margin from 6.4% to 3.2%, it also brought in areas where Labor performed well in 2022. This could help mitigate losses if there is a statewide swing against Labor.

The Liberal Party's candidate (Katie Allen) for Chisholm has struggled with visibility, which could hinder their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the federal government.

Chisholm includes diverse communities in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, where progressive issues like healthcare, education, and cost-of-living relief resonate strongly. These factors could favor Doyle if she effectively connects with these voters.

As a former union leader, Doyle has strong backing from unions, which can provide additional campaign resources and grassroots mobilisation.

Dickson (QLD)

Betting Tip: Ali France (Labor) @ $4.50

Dickson is Queensland's most marginal seat, held by Peter Dutton with a razor-thin margin of 1.7% following the 2022 election. Dutton won by just 3,363 votes, making the seat highly competitive and susceptible to small swings.

Labor has poured significant resources into Dickson, including an additional $130,000 for campaigning efforts. Internal research suggests the electorate is "closer than originally thought," with thousands of voters reportedly undecided.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has personally campaigned in Dickson, signalling its importance to Labor’s strategy in Queensland.

France is a three-time candidate with strong local connections and a compelling personal story as a para-athlete and advocate for disability rights.

Her platform focuses on cost-of-living relief, healthcare improvements, and better infrastructure, which resonate with working-class and middle-class voters in Dickson.

Recent YouGov polling shows Labor leading in Dickson with 52.5% of the two-party-preferred vote compared to the Coalition's 47.5%. This suggests momentum may be shifting toward France.

Dutton’s decision to leave his electorate during Cyclone Alfred for a Sydney fundraiser has drawn criticism, with voters expressing concerns about his focus on Canberra politics rather than local issues.

Independent Ellie Smith (backed by Climate 200) and Greens candidate Vinnie Batten could siphon votes from Dutton’s primary base, with preferences likely flowing to Labor. This could amplify France’s chances in such a tight contest.

Verdict

2025 Australian Federal Election

Our three value betting tips for Labor in key seats for the upcoming 2025 Australian Federal Election include Fiona Phillips in Gilmore (NSW), Mary Doyle in Chisholm (VIC) and Ali France in Dickson (QLD).