Dominic Cummings Odds - Impact on Tory Election Chances Limited

The next general Election is 1.54 at Betfair to happen in 2024 so political betting traders on betfair are discounting the Cummings saga will disrupt the electoral chances of the Tories. 

A hung parliament is the most likely outcome on the Exchange's next election market at 2.66, with the Tories 2.92 and Labour 3.30. New opposition leader Keir Starmer has made a decent start, routing Johnson at PMQs for a second successive week on Wednesday and forcing the government into a u-turn on the NHS surcharge for migrant health workers.

If Cummings goes - and, as the odds indicate, it's now looking more likely than it was 24 hours ago - then Johnson could lack direction in office and be exposed when the official inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic eventually arrives.

Alastair Campbell, who occupied a similarly divisive role in Tony Blair's administration and has been a vocal critic of Cummings this weekend, used to say that when you became the story you were finished.

By contrast, Cummings relishes the limelight and revels in creating distractions from policy. But Blair was never as assured in office after Campbell left - and neither was David Cameron after Steve Hilton departed - and the same could prove to be true for Johnson once Cummings goes.