Trump Pump: Trump's Reelection Odds Surge to nearly 75% After Assassination Attempt

Trump was speaking at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13th 2024 when gunfire erupted. The former president was struck in the ear, prompting immediate action from Secret Service agents who rushed him off the stage. Despite the severity of the incident, Trump appeared defiant, his face spattered with blood as he pumped his fist to the crowd moments after the attack. His campaign has since confirmed that he is fine.

The immediate aftermath of the incident saw a notable reaction in financial markets. Prior to the shooting, markets had been optimistic about a potential Trump presidency, reflected in a stronger dollar and expectations for a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve. According to Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, these trades are likely to gain momentum in the coming week. Betting markets also reacted to the news with as steep increase in the implied probability of Trump winning the US 2024 Presidential Election.

This is the first time a U.S. president or major party candidate has been shot since the 1981 assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan. Historical parallels are being drawn, as Reagan’s approval ratings surged by 22 points following his shooting. Nick Ferres, Chief Investment Officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, suggests that this incident could similarly upend the tight race between Trump and the incumbent President Joe Biden, potentially leading to a landslide victory for Trump.

"From memory, Reagan went up 22 points in the polls after his assassination attempt. The election is likely to be a landslide. This probably reduces uncertainty," Ferres commented.

World leaders and U.S. politicians have universally condemned the shooting. High-profile industry figures, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have publicly expressed their support for Trump. Musk’s endorsement, coupled with Trump's apparent resilience, has bolstered his image among voters. "I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery," Musk stated.

Many observers say the dramatic images of a bloodied Trump defiantly pumping his fist after being shot will invigorate his supporters, possibly boosting his election chances.

President Biden has been facing increasing scrutiny following a lackluster performance in a recent debate against Trump. Concerns from donors, supporters, and fellow Democrats about his ability to effectively compete have been mounting. This latest incident only adds to the challenges Biden faces as he strives to reassure his base and swing voters.

Immigration and the economy remain central issues for U.S. voters. Recent Reuters/Ipsos polls indicate that Trump is perceived as the stronger candidate on economic matters, even as Biden's administration highlights a solid economic performance with slowing inflation and low unemployment rates.