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US Election Odds, Prediction & Betting Tips – Biden can turn Texas Blue

Last updated: 31 Oct 2020
Conrad Castleton 31 Oct 2020
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  • Donald Trump odds-on to win Texas
  • Polling suggests Joe Biden is closing the gap in the Lone Star State
  • A Biden win in Texas would see the state go Blue for the first time since the 1970s
  • Read on for Texas US Election odds and predictions!
Texas Election Odds Joe Biden
Joe Biden (Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)
Joe Biden is overpriced to win Texas and should be shorter odds than currently available. That's the tl:dr. Here's why...

Texas is a Republican-leaning state. In fact, no Democratic presidential candidate has won the Lone Star State since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

However, ahead of Election Day on November 3rd, some polls are showing a slender lead for Biden among likely voters in the state, and the Texas Election Odds (Republicans 1/3 with bet365, Democrats 9/4 at time of writing) suggest there is an opportunity to be had here.

A weekend poll released by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas gave the Democratic nominee 48% of the support of likely voters, compared with 45% for Trump. The same poll last month had put Trump 2% ahead of his rival, with Biden since then increasing his lead among Hispanic voters considerably.

One of the big stories in the days and weeks leading up to Election Day has been the huge numbers of people voting early across the country. This is certainly the case in Texas where, according to the U.S. Elections Project, more than 7million ballots had already been received a week out from Election Day.

That in itself will be good news for Biden.

Political analysts in Texas believe more than 12m votes could be cast overall, and that may well work to Biden’s advantage as it will likely mean a higher number of Latino voters, who are usually more likely to vote for the Democrats, coming out to vote.

Should Biden be favourite to win Texas? No. However, the USA Today average of averages, which is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, highlighted at the weekend that the gap between the former VP and President Trump is closing, and that suggests to us that the current Texas election odds currently available may be priced up incorrectly.

A week ago, that average of averages had Trump on 48.9% and Biden on 46%, giving Trump a 2.9 point lead.

This week, however, Biden averaged 46.8% compared to Trump’s 48.1%, giving the Democratic nominee a 1.2 point boost in just seven days.

The gap is closing, Biden is gaining, and the chances of Texas going blue on November 3rd are more likely that the odds suggest.

Texas Election Odds FAQs

When is the US Election?

The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

What are the latest US Election odds?

Joe Biden is odds-on favourite in the latest 2020 Presidential Election betting.

Biden is around 1/2 at time of writing with oddsmakers, with Donald Trump around 7/4 to win a second term.

What are the latest US Election odds in Texas?

The Republicans are 1/3 favourites to win Texas. Democrats are around 5/2 at time of writing with bookmakers.

Who will win Texas?

Joe Biden can win Texas and looks good value based on the current Texas Election odds.

Donald Trump is favourite, but the gap is closing, Biden is gaining, and the chances of Texas going blue on November 3rd are more likely that the betting suggests.

What date is the 2020 US Presidential Election?

The US Election is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3rd 2020.


Looking at poll trends, and factoring in the high numbers voting early, Joe Biden is overpriced to win Texas. The Lone Star State could go Blue for the first time in 40 years.

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