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2024 South African National Election Odds - Could the ANC lose their majority?

ralph-staniforth
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Last updated: 27 May 2024
Ralph Staniforth 27 May 2024
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  • The ANC has won every election since 1994
  • ANC favourites to win yet again but support is dropping
  • Elections take place on 29 May 2024
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Can the ANC win their sixth straight elections? (Getty Images)
  • South African Election Odds 2024
  • ANC Percentage of the Vote Odds
  • Second Most Votes Odds
  • Presidential Candidates

The 2024 South African National Election takes place on May 29 with the ANC facing a battle to maintain their majority governance of the country.

The African National Congress has won all five terms since post-apartheid in 1994 and they are firm favourites to stay in power.

However, their support has declined in almost every election with the ANC dropping from 62.15% in 2014 to 57.50% in the last election in 2019.

Predictions are that they will drop significantly once again in 2024 with many forecasts predicting they will be below the majority (50%) which will force them into a national coalition for the first time.

The ANC are favourites at 1.03 with Sportingbet to win the national elections while the Democratic Alliance (DA) are priced at 13.00 to cause a national upset.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are paying 41.00 while a new party with former President Jacob Zuma at the helm, the MK Party, are valued at 51.00.

South African Election Odds 2024


South African Election Winner
Odds
African National Congress (ANC)1.03
Democratic Alliance (DA)13.00
Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)41.00
MK Party51.00
Odds correct as of 27 May 2024 on Sportingbet

ANC Percentage of the Vote Odds


This is poised to be one of South Africa’s closest ever elections for national as well as regional and provincial. 

The rise of a number of smaller parties is a major concern for the big three (ANC, DA & EFF), because votes are being taken from them. Rise Mzansi, Action SA and BOSA are three of the parties, alongside the MK party, that have made some waves across South Africa.

While all four will be contesting their first ever elections, they are expected to get one or two percent each, which is a major loss for the big three.

The best value on the table is perhaps in backing the ANC to get over/under 43.5% with Sportingbet. While below that will be a complete disaster for the party that lead South Africa out of apartheid, many believe that much of their support, particularly in urban areas, has dwindled.

ANC Over/Under 43.5%
Yes - 1.73
No - 2.00
Odds correct as of 27 May 2024 with Sportingbet

Second Most Votes Odds


The final market offered is for who will receive the second most votes nationally. That is again almost guaranteed with the DA priced at 1.12 with Sportingbet and the ANC at 13.00, EFF at 11.00 and MK Party at 21.00.

Which Party will get the second most votes
Odds
Democratic Alliance (DA)1.12
African National Congress (ANC)13.00
Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)11.00
MK Party21.00
Odds correct as of 27 May 2024 with Sportingbet

Like the ANC, the DA dropped in national votes from 2014 to 2019. It was just over a percent, but they will be hoping to climb up towards the 25% market this year.

Presidential Candidates


Current President, Cyril Ramaphosa is once again the face of the ANC campaign while John Steenhuisen is the presidential hopeful for the DA. Julius Malema, former ANC Youth League Leader is the head of the EFF while Jacob Zuma leads the MK Party.

In the last election, Mmusi Maimane was the face of the DA, but after he was ousted, he started his own party in BOSA. Another former DA loyalist, Herman Mashaba is the founder of Action SA.

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