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North Queensland v Manly tips

  • The under looks the best play in a difficult game.
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Michael Jennings of the Eels is tackled during the round 10 NRL match between the Manly Sea Eagles and the Parramatta Eels at Lottoland on July 18, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
North Queensland v Manly Tips and Preview 
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville, Friday, 8pm

History
North Queensland has won six of the last eight against Manly though the Eagles won the only clash last year 22-20. The Sea Eagles have won the last two in Townsville. The Cowboys have covered three of the last four though the Sea Eagles are 11-7 against the line dating back to 2008. The over has hit in 7 of the last 10. 

Recent Form
North Queensland are 12th on the ladder with a 3-7 record. They rank 9th in scoring but a very poor 14th in defence. They are 4-6 ATS with an 8-2 over record. The Cowboys have lost six of their last seven with all losses coming by double digits. Manly pulled off a stunning upset of Parramatta last week after three straight losses. The Sea Eagles are 10th on the ladder with a 5-5 record. Manly rank 9th in defence but 12th in scoring. They are 5-5 ATS with a 7-3 under record though have gone over in 3 of 4. 

Teams
Cowboys: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Connelly Lemuelu 4. Esan Marsters 5. Justin O’Neill 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Jake Clifford 8. Josh McGuire 9. Reece Robson 10. Francis Molo 11. Shane Wright 12. Coen Hess 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Mitchell Dunn 15. Tom Gilbert 16. Gavin Cooper 17. Reuben Cotter 18. Murray Taulagi 19. Ben Hampton 20. Jordan McLean 21. Emry Pere

Sea Eagles: 1. Brendan Elliot 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Cade Cust 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Danny Levi 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Jack Gosiewski 16. Sean Keppie 17. Taniela Paseka 18. Corey Waddell 19. Tevita Funa 20. Abbas Miski 21. Haumole Olakau’atu

Jordan McLean and John Asiata are set to return for the Cowboys. The Sea Eagles have lost Moses Suli and are hoping Addin Fonua-Blake gets a flu jab. 

Stats That Matter

  • Manly have won just 6 of their last 18 without Tom Trbojevic
  • Manly have covered 7 of their last 9 interstate
  • Manly are 1-4 ATS as am interstate favourite since 2016
  • Manly are 5-16 ATS as a favourite away from Brookvale (4-10 ATS off a win)
  • Manly have covered 10 of 15 away from Brookvale off a win
  • The Cowboys have covered just 4 of their last 12 at home
  • The Cowboys have covered just 6 of their last 16 as a home underdog
  • The Cowboys have covered just 2 of their last 8 as a home underdog off a cover
  • The under is 21-16 when the Cowboys are off a cover
  • The under is 27-18 when Manly are off scoring 22 or more

The Verdict
The under looks the best play in a difficult game. The Cowboys have sacked Paul Green but that has not been a good indicator of late. Manly come off a tough win but are in an obvious flat spot and are poor away from Brookvale. The Cowboys defended much more stoutly last week while Manly are an under team off scoring 22 or more. 

The Prediction
Manly by 1

Best Bet
Under 41.5 ($1.90) at bet365

Value Bet
Curtis Sironen To Score A Try ($5.50)  at bet365
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