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Brisbane Broncos v Melbourne Storm NRL Betting Tips

  • This will be ugly.
Melbourne Storm
Paul Momirovski of the Storm warms up
History
Melbourne have completely dominated Brisbane for a generation. Since 2006, the Storm have won 26 of 32 matches. The Storm have won seven straight against the Broncos with the last six all being by double digits. Since 2008, the Storm are 19-6 ATS v Brisbane. Melbourne have won nine straight against Brisbane at Suncorp with three of the last four being by 30-plus. Six of the last eight games have hit 42 points. 

Recent Form
Brisbane are 14th on the ladder with a 3-7 record. They rank 13th in scoring and have the worst defensive record in the NRL. They come off a 48-0 loss and their only win in the last eight weeks came against the hapless Bulldogs. The Broncos are 4-6 ATS with a 7-3 under record. Melbourne are third on the ladder with an 8-2 record. They rank second in defence and fifth in scoring. They are 7-3 ATS with four straight covers while the under is 6-4. The Storm have won their last two against non-Top 8 teams by 44 and 36. 

Teams
Broncos: 1. Anthony Milford 2. Herbie Farnworth 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Darius Boyd 5. Xavier Coates 6. Brodie Croft 7. Tom Dearden 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Joe Ofahengaue 12. Tevita Pangai Junior 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. Jamil Hopoate 17. Ben Te’o 18. Richard Kennar 19. Ethan Bullemor 20. Pride Petterson-Robati 21. Kobe Hetherington

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Paul Momirovski 3. Brenko Lee 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Brandon Smith 9. Cameron Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Dale Finucane 14. Marion Seve 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 16. Albert Vete 17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 18. Chris Lewis 19. Suliasi Vunivalu 20. Ryley Jacks 21. Darryn Schonig

Anthony Seibold has again shuffled the deckchairs with Anthony Milford moved to fullback and Tom Dearden to start in the halves. Melbourne will be unchanged though Sulisai Vunivalu could return from injury. 

Stats That Matter
  • Home underdogs of 8 or more are 90-57 ATS
  • Home underdogs of 8 or more off a loss of 30 are 16-7 ATS
  • Brisbane have covered just 4 of their last 12 at Suncorp
  • Brisbane have lost both games as an underdog of more than a converted try at Suncorp
  • Brisbane are 7-11 ATS as an underdog under Seibold
  • Brisbane have covered their last four off a loss of 30-plus
  • Double digit favourites are 16-1 with an 11-6 ATS record this year
  • Interstate favourites of 8 or more are 5-2 ATS this year
  • Interstate favourites of 12.5 or more are 19-15 ATS
  • Interstate favourites of 18.5 or more are 5-2 ATS
  • Melbourne are 11-3 ATS off two straight covers
  • Melbourne cover at 56% as a double digit favourite
  • Melbourne have covered just 2 of 8 as a favourite of 16 or more
  • Melbourne are 8-3 ATS since 2008 when favoured by more than 18.5 points
  • Since 2016 Melbourne are 7-2 ATS at Suncorp with an average margin of 21.2
  • The under hits at 61% in Storm games since 2016
  • The under is 20-12 when an underdog of 12.5 or more come off a win
  • The under has hit in 6 of 8 when the Storm are favoured by 16 or more
  • The under is 22-14 when a double digit favourite is off scoring 40 or more
  • The under hits at 63% when a team is off a loss of 30-plus

The Verdict
Melbourne could win this by 60. Everything is lined up. The Storm absolutely despise the Broncos and as such have completely owned them for more than a generation. They have run in some huge scores of late against better Broncos teams and are in super form with wins and covers everywhere. They hold form and can cover big numbers. The Broncos have got nothing. This will be ugly. 

The Prediction
Melbourne by 42

Best Bet
Melbourne -19.5 ($1.90)

Value Bet
Melbourne 31+ Points Exact Margin Market ($4.00) 
US

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