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Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors Tips & Preview - Broncos to edge out Warriors in a thriller

gary-emmerson
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Last updated: 20 Sep 2023
Gary Emmerson 20 Sep 2023
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  • Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors predictions for Saturday’s NRL game
  • Both teams have recorded a win, a loss and a draw in their last 3 games against each other at Suncorp Stadium.
  • Who will play in the 2023 NRL Grand Final?
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Brisbane Broncos, Reece Walsh
Reece Walsh will provide the spark for Brisbane against his former club the Warriors. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
  • Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors Preview
  • Head to Head 
  • Brisbane Broncos Form
  • Brisbane Broncos Team News
  • Brisbane Broncos Team List
  • New Zealand Warriors Form
  • New Zealand Warriors Team News
  • New Zealand Warriors Team List

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors Preview


Brisbane is going to come alive on Saturday with both footy teams hosting a preliminary final. Brisbane’s AFL team the Lions will open the festivities in the afternoon, before the headline act of the Brisbane Broncos against the New Zealand Warriors at Suncorp in the evening. 

At the start of 2023, there were not many punters picking these two teams to be in the preliminary finals, but it is safe to say that after a year of footy they are now two of the most deserving. 

The Warriors have had a resurgence under coach Andrew Webster and are riding the youthful form of playmaker Shaun Johnson. 

Brisbane found the spark they needed with the signing of former Warrior, Reece Walsh, who will go up against his old club for the first time since his move back to Brisbane. The 20-year-old high-flying fullback is going to be the difference in this game for mine. 

With both Adam Reynolds and Shaun Johnson fighting for territory with the boot this game will only be broken apart by a spark of brilliance that Walsh will provide for Brisbane. 

I am therefore taking the Brisbane fullback to score a try in a 1-12 victory to the Broncs. Both teams will be spending a lot of time working the ball out of their own end so this game is expected to go under the 42.5 point game total. 

  • Brisbane’s last 3 wins against New Zealand have been by a margin of 1-12. 
  • Both the Broncos and the Warriors have conceded an average of 18 points or less in 2023.
  • The last 4 matches at Suncorp between Brisbane and New Zealand have gone UNDER the 42.5 point game total.
  • Reece Walsh has scored a try in his last 4 appearances.

Head to Head 


The Broncos and the Warriors faced each other just once in 2023, playing out a 26-22 victory to Brisbane at McClean Park, in Napier, New Zealand, in round 13. Important to note is that Brisbane managed to get up against the Warriors without all of the Origin stars.

Over the last five years, it has been a close fight between these two clubs with no match being decided by more than 14 points. Brisbane have taken victory three times, while New Zealand have won twice and the pair have played out an 18-18 draw. 

Brisbane Broncos Form


The Broncos cruised to victory against the Melbourne Storm in week 1 of the NRL Finals, blanking their opponents 26-0, at Suncorp Stadium. 

Overall, Brisbane’s game against Melbourne was evenly matched across the board statistically, besides a couple of key defensive numbers. 

Brisbane managed to deter Melbourne 32 times inside their own 20 metres without conceding a try, where the Broncos scored four times from 29 tackles inside their opponent's 20 metres.

Brisbane missed just 24 tackles in the match, which is three tackles better than any team's missed tackles average in the NRL in 2023.

Brisbane Broncos Team News


Brisbane have named the same 17 that shut out the Storm in week 1 of the finals.

Brisbane Broncos Team List


1. Reece Walsh
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Herbie Farnworth
5. Selwyn Cobbo
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Tom Flegler 
9. Billy Walters
10. Payne Haas
11. Kurt Capewell
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Tyson Smoothy
15. Brendan Piakura
16. Kobe Hetherington
17. Keenan Palasia

Reserves

18. Corey Oates
19. Martin Taupau
20. Corey Jensen
21. Jock Madden
​​​​​​​22. Tristan Sailor

New Zealand Warriors Form


The Warriors took care of business against the Knights 40-10, in New Zealand, in their first home final since 2008. 

The return of Shaun Johnson made the difference for the Warriors after their 32-6 defeat to Penrith without their commander-in-chief. The Warriors halfback picked apart the Knights with two try assists and two linebreak assists in their semi-final match. 

However, it was his boot that made the difference, kicking for 610 metres (90 metres more than his season average), which pinned the Knights in their own end all game long and handed the Warriors 61% of the territory. 

New Zealand Warriors Team News


The Warriors will play the same 17 that beat the Knights comfortably last week.

New Zealand Warriors Team List


1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Rocco Berry
4. Adam Pompey
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Te Maire Martin
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Wayde Egan
10. Mitch Barnett
11. Jackson Ford
12. Marata Niukore
13. Tohu Harris

Interchange

14. Dylan Walker
15. Jazz Tevaga
16. Bayley Sironen
17. Josh Curran

Reserves

18. Freddy Lussick
20. Taine Tuaupiki
21. Bunty Afoa 
​​​​​​​22. Ali Leiataua
23. Edward Kosi

Verdict

This game is going to be a nailbiter, but Brisbane has more x-factor that will get them a 1-12 win. This match will be a back and forth battle that will keep the score under 42.5 points. Reece Walsh will break this game open at some stage and score a try against his former club.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 Game Total @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Value Bet: Brisbane Win Margin 1-12 @21/10 at Betgoodwin - 2 Units
Tryscoring Tips: Reece Walsh Anytime Tryscorer @7/5 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Tryscoring Tips: Reece Walsh First Tryscorer @12/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Under 42.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Brisbane Win
Margin 1-12
@21/10 - 2 Units
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Reece Walsh
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Reece Walsh
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