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Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys Tips & Preview - Broncos to win QLD derby in NRL

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 19 Mar 2025

Ryan Tucker 19 Mar 2025

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Brisbane Broncos vs North QLD Cowboys expert predictions for Friday’s Round 3 NRL game
Broncos have won last 4 games vs Cowboys
Cowboys struggling with -54 pt differential and are set for another loss

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys Preview
Head to Head
Brisbane Broncos Form
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team List
North Queensland Cowboys Form
North Queensland Cowboys Team News
North QLD Cowboys Team List

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys Preview

The Brisbane Broncos have won four in a row against state rivals North Queensland Cowboys and can extend that run. Take the Broncos to win 1-12 in a low scoring matchup.

Brisbane are 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS as 16.5 point (or more) favourites since 2019.
2 of the last 3 games with Brisbane as this heavy favourite have gone Under the Game Total.
Jesse Arthars had 3 tries last weekend and matches up against one of the worst defensive edges in the NRL.
8 of the 13 tries scored by Brisbane this season have been by Wingers.

Head to Head

The Broncos have won 4 straight against the Cowboys as well as 8 of the last 12 dating back to the start of the 2019 season.

The last seven games and nine of 12 during the same period have all gone Over the Game total while the winning margin has more often than not been 13+, only four of the last 12 have finished between 1-12.

North Queensland’s last win against the Broncos at Suncorp was in March 2022.

Brisbane Broncos Form

After putting 50 past the Roosters in round 1, Brisbane failed to get past the Raiders last weekend going down 32-22 in Canberra.

4 of the back 5 from the Raiders were able to run for 120+ metres in the game which mirrored the Broncos defensive effort against the Roosters the week before.

Brisbane didn’t do much to help their own cause with 15 errors, 4 penalties and 4 set restarts given away during the game.

The Broncos have by far and away the fewest average Kick Metres of any team in the NRL despite having two of the best and most experienced halves in Adam Reynolds and Ben Hunt.

Brisbane Broncos Team News

No changes made to the Broncos lineup that was beaten soundly last weekend. Kotoni Staggs is pushing for a return from injury and has been named in the reserves.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Reece Walsh

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Deine Mariner

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Jesse Arthars

6. Ben Hunt

7. Adam Reynolds

8. Patrick Carrigan

9. Cory Paix

10. Payne Haas

11. Jack Gosiewski

12. Jordan Riki

13. Kobe Hetherington

Interchange

14. Billy Walters

15. Corey Jensen

16. Xavier Willison

17. Brendan Piakura

Reserves

18. Tyson Smoothy

19. Kotoni Staggs

20. Martin Taupau

21. Jaiyden Hunt

22. Jock Madden

North Queensland Cowboys Form

The Cowboys sit 16th on the ladder with a -54 pt differential after the first two rounds of the season. Only Parramatta have a worse number but the next team above them in differential is the Roosters with -30.

After being toweled up by Manly on the road in Round 1 the team was looking to show some pride in defence against the Sharks in their home opener last weekend but were again blown out, losing 36-12.

Scott Drinkwater has been the only real shining star for a team that allowed 11 linebreaks to their opposition last weekend along with 38 missed tackles.

North Queensland Cowboys Team News

Robert Derby has replaced the injured Braidon Burns on the wing and Jake Clifford returns to first grade in place of Tom Duffy who hasn’t earned the coaches trust enough to keep him in for a third week.

Jeremiah Nanai was dropped prior to last weekend’s game but has earnt a recall on the interchange and Jason Taumalolo returns from injury to the NRL in the front row. Sam McIntyre is the player to make way with Karl Lawton and Harrison Edwards getting bumped to the reserves.

North QLD Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Robert Derby

3. Jaxon Purdue

4. Viliami Vailea

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Tom Dearden

7. Jake Clifford

8. Jordan McLean

9. Reece Robson

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. John Bateman

12. Kai O'Donnell

13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange

14. Sam McIntyre

15. Jeremiah Nanai

16. Griffin Neame

17. Coen Hess

Reserves

18. Harrison Edwards

19. Tom Duffy

20. Thomas Mikaele

21. Karl Lawton

22. Jaxson Paulo

Verdict

Brisbane Broncos v North QLD Cowboys

Take the Broncos to win 1-12, the game total to go Under with both teams likely being drilled on defence following their lapses last weekend. Both Cobbo and Arthars have scored four tries in two games and can impact again.

Brisbane 1-12

Winning Margin

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