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Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons Preview & Tips - Raiders to win another close on in NRL

andrew-hendrie
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Last updated: 02 Jul 2025
Andrew Hendrie 02 Jul 2025
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  • Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 18 game
  • Raiders have won 11 of last 12 games and are aiming for seventh straight win
  • Expect a tight match with under 49.5 points; Raiders tipped for 1-12 point victory
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Raiders Dragons NRL
Raiders host Dragons on Saturday (Photo by Getty Images)


Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons Preview


The Raiders are backed to make it seven win on the trot for the first time in nine years, with value on the trend of a 1-12 point Canberra win. Throw in Under 49.5 total points and a try to Matty Timoko too.
  • Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons Preview
  • Head To Head
  • Canberra Raiders Form
  • Canberra Raiders Team News
  • Canberra Raiders Team List
  • St George Illawarra Dragons Form
  • St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
  • St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

  • Raiders have won 11 of their last 12 games
  • Raiders have won their last four meetings vs Dragons
  • Raiders have seen a 1-12 margin in 18 of their last 23 wins
  • Raiders' last five wins over Dragons have been by 10 points or less
  • Raiders have seen Under 49.5 points in four of their last five games
  • Seven of the last nine meetings have seen Under 49.5 points
  • Dragons have lost five of their seven away games this season
  • Matt Timoko has scored three tries in his last three games vs Dragons & is due a meat pie heading into this clash

Head To Head


The Dragons haven't beaten Canberra at GIO Stadium since 2015. The Raiders have won the last four encounters overall, including a thrilling 26-24 comeback in Round 27 last year at Kogarah, with the Green Machine winning the second-half 16-0.

Canberra Raiders Form


Ricky Stuart's side continue to grind away, rarely blowing teams off the park, but at the same time consistently coming out on top, which showcases the immense belief they have as a team.

Canberra bring a six-match winning streak into this clash, but they've been forced to hold on late in their last two victories against the lowly Tigers and Knights on the road.

On each occasion, the Raiders surged out to 16-0 half-time leads and ultimately steeled themselves to register a pair of four-point victories, 16-12 over the Tigers and 22-18 against Newcastle.

Canberra Raiders Team News


Hudson Young and Josh Papalii are in Origin camp for Game 3, so Trey Mooney comes into the side on the bench and Simi Sasagi starts in the second row.

Canberra Raiders Team List


1. Kaeo Weekes
2. Jed Stuart
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Corey Horsburgh
9. Tom Starling
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Simi Sasagi
12. Zac Hosking
13. Morgan Smithies

Interchange
14. Owen Pattie
15. Noah Martin
16. Trey Mooney
17. Ata Mariota

Reserves
18. Chevy Stewart
19. Pasami Saulo
20. Joseph Roddy
21. Danny Levi
22. Ethan Sanders

St George Illawarra Dragons Form


It's been another poor season for the Dragons, but such is the nature of this year's competition, they are only one win outside of the top eight as they come into this fixture with three wins from their last five.

Two of those victories were over the Knights and Eels, so not much can be read into the Dragons' current form, but they have shown they can beat the best teams in the competition this season, registering wins over the likes of Melbourne and Brisbane.

But in reality, the Dragons are lacking that leading playmaker to steer their side around the paddock - Kyle Flanagan always gives 100%, but he just isn't the answer as a premier No. 7 in the NRL.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News


Sione Finau, Tyrell Sloan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner, Loko Pasifiki Tonga, Hame Sele and Michael Molo all come into the team after featuring in NSW Cup last week.

Hamish Stewart (concussion), Luciano Leilua (quad), Nathan Lawson (shoulder) and Toby Couchman (shoulder) are out injured, while Valentine Holmes is away on Origin duty for Queensland.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List


1. Clinton Gutherson
2. Sione Finau
3. Moses Suli
4. Corey Allan
5. Tyrell Sloan
6. Lyhkan King-Togia
7. Kyle Flanagan
8. Emre Guler
9. Damien Cook
10. David Klemmer
11. Raymond Faitala-Mariner
12. Jaydn Su’A
13. Jack de Belin

Interchange
14. Jacob Liddle
15. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga
16. Hame Sele
17. Michael Molo

Reserves
18. Blake Lawrie
19. Viliami Fifita
20. Nicholas Tsougranis
21. Lachlan Ilias
22. Jacob Halangahu

Verdict

The Raiders are tipped to grind out another 1-12 win in a game producing Under 49.5 total points.

Matt Timoko can cross for his fourth try in as many games against the Dragons.

Best Bet1: Under 49.5 Total Points @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Raiders 1-12 Margin @11/5 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Matt Timoko Anytime Tryscorer @15/8 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Matt Timoko First Tryscorer @16/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Under 49.5
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Matt Timoko
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