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Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos Preview & Tips - Broncos too good for Phins in QLD derby in NRL

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: 26 Mar 2025

Jeremy Darke 26 Mar 2025

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Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos expert predictions for Friday’s Round 4 NRL game
Broncos to cover a -4.5 first-half spread
Dolphins to stay under 18.5 points in the game

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Jesse Arthars (Getty Images)

Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos Preview
Head to Head
Dolphins Form
Dolphins Team News
Dolphins Team List
Brisbane Broncos Form
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team List

Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos Preview

Brisbane have had two good wins his season and can cover a -4.5 points first half line and keep the Dolphins under 18.5 points in the entire match.

Brisbane have led by 12 points or more at half time in both of their victories this season.
Dolphins are averaging 14.7 points per game in 2025, scoring 18 points or less in all 3 matches played.
Dolphins have scored under 18.5 points in 3 of 5 matches against Brisbane.
Jesse Arthurs has 5 tries in 3 games this season.

Head to Head

The Dolphins won the last match against Brisbane 40-6 in round 26 last season.

Since the Dolphins inception into the NRL, Brisbane have a 3-1 head to head lead.

Dolphins Form

The Dolphins are one of three teams that have started the season with a 0-3 record, but are the best of the bunch with a differential of -28.

It has been a tough start incharge for new head coach Kristian Woolf and the Wayne Bennett effect is in full-swing with the master coach leaving and the team falling apart behind him.

Conceding 72 points in defence is fifth worse in the league, but where it isn’t working is in attack for the Dolphins, who have failed to score over 18 points in any of their three matches this season.

The Dolphins had a better stick of possession in their opening two matches and over 60% of the territory but failed to make any real impact at their opponents line. Linebreaks are not being created, breaking the opponents line just 8 times this season compared to being split themselves 17 times.

Dolphins Team News

Jack Bostock and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki were late inclusions in Round 3 and have both been named to start this weekend.

Josh Kerr and Jesse Bromwich are on the outside of the squad looking in and could be including in the Dolphins 17.

Dolphins Team List

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

2. Jamayne Isaako

3. Jake Averillo

4. Herbie Farnworth

5. Jack Bostock

6. Kodi Nikorima

7. Isaiya Katoa

8. Daniel Saifiti

9. Jeremy Marshall-King

10. Felise Kaufusi

11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

12. Max Plath

13. Tom Gilbert

Interchange

14. Kurt Donoghoe

15. Oryn Keeley

16. Mark Nicholls

17. Ray Stone

Reserves

18. Kenny Bromwich

19. Sean O'Sullivan

20. Josh Kerr

21. Max Feagai

22. Junior Tupou

Brisbane Broncos Form

Brisbane bounced back from their poor performance in the nation's capital to get their second win of the season, beating the Cowboys 26-16 in Round 3 to give them a 2-1 start to 2025.

Brisbane got themselves on the backfoot against the Raiders with some poor defence, but sorted it out against the Cowboys, showing more commitment and more intent to protect their line, which would have pleased new coach Michael Maguire.

North Queensland had 70% of the territory and 18 tackles inside the Broncos 20m line and walked off the field at the break scoreless.

Payne Haas has been influential for Brisbane leading the league with 22 tackle busts while at the other end of the field having a 99% tackle efficiency.

The NSW prop is leading the way for Brisbane and once his outside backs find their full potential and hit their rhythm, the Broncos attack is going to be a scary force.

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Kotoni Staggs will play his first game of the NRL season, slotting into the centres with Deine Mariner being bumped out.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Reece Walsh

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Jesse Arthars

6. Ben Hunt

7. Adam Reynolds

8. Patrick Carrigan

9. Cory Paix

10. Payne Haas

11. Jack Gosiewski

12. Jordan Riki

13. Kobe Hetherington

Interchange

14. Billy Walters

15. Corey Jensen

16. Xavier Willison

17. Brendan Piakura

Reserves

18. Tyson Smoothy

19. Deine Mariner

20. Martin Taupau

21. Jaiyden Hunt

22. Jock Madden

Verdict

Dolphins v Brisbane Broncos

Jesse Arthurs can continue his try scoring form with another against the Dolphins. Brisbane to cover the 4.5 point margin at half time and hold the Dolphins under 18.5 points in the match.

Brisbane -4.5

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