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New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos Tips & Preview - Warriors too strong for under-strength Broncos

26 May 2023
Jeremy Darke 26 May 2023
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  • New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos predictions for Saturday’s NRL game (17:30 AEST)
  • Addin Fonua-Blake has scored 5 tries in 2023, tied first among forwards in the NRL
  • Will the Warriors hand the Broncos their third consecutive loss?
new zealand warriors
New Zealand Warriors (Getty Images)

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos Predictions

Origin time is always a good time of the season to meet the Broncos and it is the Warriors that will have the opportunity to take advantage of a somewhat second-string Brisbane side. 

Missing key men over the entire park and the Warriors basically at full-strength, I can’t see how Brisbane will be able to gain the metres needed while managing to hold any kind of decent territory. I predict that Brisbane will struggle for points thus holding the game total under the 43.5 points. 

The Warriors’ Fonua-Blake will keep his try scoring form alive going against a weaker forward pack in the middle. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak will also find the line against the soft left side defence of Brisbane.

  • 8 of 11 Warriors games have hit the under Game Points Total.
  • The last 6 games between New Zealand and Brisbane have gone under the Game Points Total.
  • The Warriors have held their opponents to under 20 points in 5 of their 6 wins in 2023.
  • Broncos concede 53% of their tries down the left hand side.
  • Addin Fonua-Blake has scored 4 tries in his last 5 games.

Head to Head 

The Warriors have had the most recent success in the head to head battle against Brisbane, winning three of the last five matches.

New Zealand and Brisbane haven't met since Rd. 4, 2022, where the Warriors got the better of the Broncos 20-6 at Moreton Daily Stadium.

New Zealand Warriors Form

After their best start in recent history, the New Zealand Warriors fell into a slight slump, losing three matches in a row between rounds 8-10.

They bounced back in round 11 with a fairly comfortable win 24-12 over the Bulldogs before their bye last week. 

Even after their dip in form, the Warriors are still boasting a top five defence, only conceding an average of 19.1 points per game.

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Although the Warriors have no players on representative duties they will be missing two key players in Wade Egan and Dylan Walker.

Luke Metcalf comes in at five-eighth to make his debut from the Warriors and Jackson Ford comes back into the side after a head knock.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Rocco Berry
4. Adam Pompey
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Luke Metcalf
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Freddy Lussick
10. Bunty Afoa
11. Jackson Ford
12. Marata Niukore
13. Tohu Harris


14. Bayley Sironen
15. Josh Curran
16. Demitric Sifakula
17. Tom Ale


18. Ronald Volkman
20. Taine Tuaupiki
21. Ali Leiataua
22. Kalani Going
23. Zyon Maiu'u

Brisbane Broncos Form

Brisbane still share the top of the ladder with four other teams on 16 competition points, even though they have lost their last two games.

Tough losses to the Storm and the Panther in rounds 11 and 12 have put Brisbane under pressure heading into the origin period where they traditionally fall down the ladder due to their representative commitments. 

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Reece Walsh, Selwyn Cobbo, Payne Haas, Tom Flegler and Patrick Carrigan are all away on Origin duties, leaving big boots to fill in the Broncos lineup.

Tristan Sailor, son of Broncos great Wendell Sailor, will make his debut for the club at fullback. 

Deine Mariner, Keenan Palasia, Corey Jensen and Kobe Hethrigton move into the starting 13, while Xavier Willison and Brenden Piakura join a new look bench.

In positive news for the Broncos, halfback Adam Reynolds will start at halfback after missing last week with concussion.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Tristan Sailor
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Herbie Farnworth
5. Deine Mariner
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Keenan Palasia
9. Billy Walters
10. Corey Jensen
11. Kurt Capewell
12. Jordan Riki
13. Kobe Hetherington


14. Cory Paix
15. Xavier Willison
16. Brendan Piakura
17. Martin Taupau


18. Jock Madden
19. Tyson Smoothy
20. Delouise Hoeter
21. Israel Leota
22. Benjamin Te Kura


The go-forward of the Warriors should be too strong for an under-strength Broncos outfit. Expect the Warriors to cross the line comfortably while containing any attack that Brisbane throws at them. 

The under will be good here and riding on the back of the two in-form try scorers of DWZ and Fonua-Blake I expect to build up the kitty nicely.

Best Bet: Under 43.5 Total Points @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Dallin WateneZelezniak Anytime Tryscorer @11/12 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Second Half Tryscorer: New Zealand Warriors Only Team To Score 20+ Points @11/10 at Ladbrokes - 1 Unit
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Addin Fonua-Blake Anytime Tryscorer @17/5 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Under 43.5
Total Points
@9/10 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Dallin WateneZelezniak
Anytime Tryscorer
@11/12 - 2 Units
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Addin Fonua-Blake
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