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State of Origin Game 1 First Tryscorer Tips - Who will get the first try in Origin 2023?

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 31 May 2023
Ryan Tucker 31 May 2023
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  • State of Origin Game 1 takes place on Wednesday, May 31
  • NSW have scored the first try in game 1 in 9 of the last 10 years
  • Who will get the first try in Origin 1?
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Valentine Holmes state of origin
Valentine Holmes (Getty Images)
 

The 2023 Origin series will kick off in Adelaide with shield holders, the Queensland Maroons, looking to repeat their 2020 success at Adelaide Oval when they beat the Blues 18-14, in game 1 of the series.

We have dived into the record books as far back as 2017, when the last current player scored the first try in an Origin game to give our best tips for the first try scorer.

  • In the 18 games played in the last 6 years, both QLD and NSW have had 9 first try scorers each. 
  • The wingers (7) and centres (6) have naturally dominated the first try scoring category, second-rowers have scored on 2 occasions with no other position scoring first more than once. 
  • NSW have scored the first try in game 1 in each of the previous 6 years.

Based on these trends and their current try scoring form here are our top 3 picks for the first try scorer in State of Origin Game 1. You can also read our Origin Game 1 tips and get our man of the match picks.

Valentine Holmes


Although there may be a lack of try scoring in 2023, for Valentine Holmes he certainly has no problem getting over the line in Origin, scoring 11 tries in 13 games.

The miraculous statistic is that almost half of his tries have been the games first, opening the try scoring in 6 of his 13 games. His latest as first try scorer was in game 3, 2022, crossing in the 12th minute.

Holmes has been the first try scorer in at least 1 game of 4 of the 5 State of Origin series he has been involved in. 

Josh Addo-Carr


Josh Addo-Carr famously missed out on Freddie Fittler’s selection in 2022, having a slow start to the year following his move to the Bulldogs. 

He then went on to prove to the NSW coaching staff that they made a mistake by leading Australia with 12 tries in the World Cup, tying Valentine Holmes’ try scoring record.

The Foxx has scored 6 tries in his 7 games this season for Canterbury and will be looking to return the faith early to the Blues, being selected after playing just 1 game since round 6 this season. 

Addo-Carr is no stranger to crossing the line at Adelaide Oval, scoring twice in a losing side in Origin 1, 2020.

Hudson Young


Hudson Young comes into the Blues camp on debut full of confidence, forcing his way into the side purely on the back of his current form for the Raiders. 

The Canberra second-rower has been dynamic with and without the ball and has earnt his spot in the starting side for NSW.

Young is also in try scoring form, crossing for 5 tries in his last 8 games, one of those being the first try scorer in round 4 against the Knights. 

Blues halfback Nathan Cleary will be looking for Young to run the lines he does for Canberra on the edges, finding the gap in the QLD line, just as he has done all season long.
 

Verdict

Centres and wingers dominate the first try scoring statistics and Val Holmes and Josh Addo-Carr are as dynamic as you can get. Hudson Young is a roughie with a good chance to hit a hole off the hip of Nathan Cleary and cross the line early.

Value Bet: Josh Addo-Carr First Try Scorer @17/2 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Value Bet: Valentine Holmes First Try Scorer @20/1 at Grosvenor Sports - 1 Unit
Value Bet: Hudson Young First Try Scorer @30/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
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